NUMB3RS: Bullpen Struggles Against Rays, With Added Perspective

So the first half of a home and home series with the Rays (three games removed) is in the books, with the Jays winning the opener and then dropping the next two. To argue that this proves the Jays cannot compete with the elite of the AL East is nonsense, as they were able to take leads into the 9th inning on all three occasions. What it does illustrate however is a startlingly ineffective bullpen, at least against the Rays.

In three consecutive games, Blue Jays hitters got their starters in front early. In three consecutive games, they took a lead into the 9th. In three consecutive games, the Jays relievers conceded runs. In fact, the bullpen has coughed up runs in each of the team's 6 games against the Rays thus far. The good news is that this team has shown it is clearly capable of competing and driving baseball's best to the very brink. The bad news is that, so far this year, the Jays have been completely incapable of earning their coffee against Tampa.

So just how bad has the bullpen been against the original purveyors of Tank Nation? Here's the complete team-by-team splits of the relief corps:


YIKES. Despite accounting for only 7 percent of the bullpen's workload in 2010 so far, games against Tampa Bay have accounted for almost 30 percent of the runs allowed. A 17.47 ERA against the Rays is more than twice as high as against any other team, and in fact higher than the next three highest ERAs put together. The ratio stats are just as ugly, with the pen averaging more than 10 walks per nine. And having given up 24 hits already in just 11.1 IP, they've put up an absolutely miserable WHIP of 3.265. I wish I could offer a strong explanation for why they've struggled so mightily, but I'm not sure there is one. At least not a substantive one. Sometimes they've walked themselves into trouble, sometimes the Rays have found some timely hitting and power. But I'm going to go for the infuriating, intangible-disregarding answer: bad luck.

Don't get me wrong, 10.32 BB/9 is a truly ugly stat. Giving away on average more than a batter per inning on balls is a recipe for disaster. And I'm not saying at all that this bullpen's numbers against Tampa should be good, just not nearly as bad as they've been. But consider that this team has also averaged 9.53 SO/9. Consider that until Scott Downs served up a grand slam to Carl Crawford after his team had already taken the lead, the bullpen had held Tampa without a home run. The walks account for a lot of the problem, but for the most part the pen has been putting the ball in play. The fielding independent pitching statistic (FIP) suggests that they're more deserving of an ERA less than a third as high. But that depends on balls finding gloves at the rate they've historically found them. And so far that hasn't happened.

Consider this: against all other opponents, Jays relievers have posted an ERA of 3.25, which would be good enough for 6th in baseball. Include the Rays and the ERA jumps more than a full point to 4.27 and the Jays fall to 18th in bullpen ERA. In 2009 they posted a disappointing but manageable 5.33 ERA against the Rays in 52.1 IP. The year before they were dominant with a 2.11 ERA in 47 IP. Defense independent metrics, history and common sense suggest something is going to give. Let's just hope it happens real soon, because the next tilt with these Jay relief killers comes on Tuesday.