This Week In The Jaysophere (6/6-6/12)

Let's see if we can sum everything up in two words this week...

Draft analysis (The Tao of Stieb)
Draft liveblog (Drunk Jays Fans)
Atlantic League (Mop Up Duty)
Dunedin's manager (Batter's Box)
Bullpen sucks (Jays Balk)
Deck McGuire (1 Blue Jays Way)
WTF, Cito? (The Southpaw)

This Week In The Jaysophere (5/30-6/5)

Again a day late, because we were up all night celebrating the Jays' signing of DeWayne Wise.

Hey casual fans, you're missing a good season (The Tao of Stieb)
For protesting the treatment of Michael Wilner (Drunk Jays Fans)
On first-pitch home runs (Ghostrunner on First)
Talking about steroids without once uttering the word 'steroids' (Ghostrunner on First)
Why is a Jays blog talking about soccer? (Bluebird Banter)
More on Cito vs. Mike (Bluebird Banter)
As of this moment, I can still access Blue Jay Hunter on my Rogers Internet connection (The Blue Jay Hunter)
Hey, remember those ninth-inning collapses? (John McDonald's Cabinet)

NUMB3RS: Bullpen Struggles Against Rays, With Added Perspective

So the first half of a home and home series with the Rays (three games removed) is in the books, with the Jays winning the opener and then dropping the next two. To argue that this proves the Jays cannot compete with the elite of the AL East is nonsense, as they were able to take leads into the 9th inning on all three occasions. What it does illustrate however is a startlingly ineffective bullpen, at least against the Rays.

In three consecutive games, Blue Jays hitters got their starters in front early. In three consecutive games, they took a lead into the 9th. In three consecutive games, the Jays relievers conceded runs. In fact, the bullpen has coughed up runs in each of the team's 6 games against the Rays thus far. The good news is that this team has shown it is clearly capable of competing and driving baseball's best to the very brink. The bad news is that, so far this year, the Jays have been completely incapable of earning their coffee against Tampa.

So just how bad has the bullpen been against the original purveyors of Tank Nation? Here's the complete team-by-team splits of the relief corps:


YIKES. Despite accounting for only 7 percent of the bullpen's workload in 2010 so far, games against Tampa Bay have accounted for almost 30 percent of the runs allowed. A 17.47 ERA against the Rays is more than twice as high as against any other team, and in fact higher than the next three highest ERAs put together. The ratio stats are just as ugly, with the pen averaging more than 10 walks per nine. And having given up 24 hits already in just 11.1 IP, they've put up an absolutely miserable WHIP of 3.265. I wish I could offer a strong explanation for why they've struggled so mightily, but I'm not sure there is one. At least not a substantive one. Sometimes they've walked themselves into trouble, sometimes the Rays have found some timely hitting and power. But I'm going to go for the infuriating, intangible-disregarding answer: bad luck.

Don't get me wrong, 10.32 BB/9 is a truly ugly stat. Giving away on average more than a batter per inning on balls is a recipe for disaster. And I'm not saying at all that this bullpen's numbers against Tampa should be good, just not nearly as bad as they've been. But consider that this team has also averaged 9.53 SO/9. Consider that until Scott Downs served up a grand slam to Carl Crawford after his team had already taken the lead, the bullpen had held Tampa without a home run. The walks account for a lot of the problem, but for the most part the pen has been putting the ball in play. The fielding independent pitching statistic (FIP) suggests that they're more deserving of an ERA less than a third as high. But that depends on balls finding gloves at the rate they've historically found them. And so far that hasn't happened.

Consider this: against all other opponents, Jays relievers have posted an ERA of 3.25, which would be good enough for 6th in baseball. Include the Rays and the ERA jumps more than a full point to 4.27 and the Jays fall to 18th in bullpen ERA. In 2009 they posted a disappointing but manageable 5.33 ERA against the Rays in 52.1 IP. The year before they were dominant with a 2.11 ERA in 47 IP. Defense independent metrics, history and common sense suggest something is going to give. Let's just hope it happens real soon, because the next tilt with these Jay relief killers comes on Tuesday.

Month 2 A.D. In Review

31-22, 3rd in AL East (19-10 in May)

Notable Performers:
Shaun Marcum - 6 GS, 5-0, 1.85 ERA, 39 IP, 32 SO, 10 BB
Brett Cecil - 6 GS, 4-1, 3.89 ERA, 37 IP, 29 SO, 10 BB
Jason Frasor - 11 G, 2-0, 0.82 ERA, 11 IP, 10 SO, 2 BB
Scott Downs - 13 G, 1-1, 1.26 ERA, 14.1 IP, 13 SO, 4 BB

Jose Bautista - 29 G, .287/.422/.766, 5 2B, 2 3B, 12 HR, 25 RBI, 1/1 SB
Fred Lewis - 27 G, .333/.366/.561, 15 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 20 R, 2/4 SB
John Buck - 23 G, .297/.342/.554, 7 2B, 4 HR, 13 RBI

While Cito Gaston spoke softly, his players continued to carry a big stick into May, launching a club record of 54 home runs in the month. The Jays have hit 89 big flies on the season, a full 20 ahead of the 2nd place Red Sox which suggests that we'll be hearing "In the Hall of the Mountain King" on Sportsnet for at least a little while longer. But it wasn't just the long ball this month that was providing the offense. After a month that saw the Jays find themselves last in on base percentage and relying overwhelmingly on homers while posting a team line of .230/.303/.446, the team showed improvement across the board in May with a line of .258/.318/.493. On the pitching side of things, the bullpen settled down nicely and the addition of Brett Cecil to the rotation helped the team lower it's ERA 20 points to 4.13 (3.96 on the month). Like 2009, the Jays have exploded out of the gates much to the surprise of the baseball world. Unlike 2009, the Jays will carry that momentum into June, having won the final 5 games of May.

High Points:

May 3rd -Jays 5, Indians 1
Brett Cecil takes a perfect game into the 7th inning. Finally with 1 out in the 7th, Grady Sizemore and Shin Soo Choo earn walks before Jhonny Peralta lines an RBI single to left for the Tribe's first hit of the game. It would be the only one they'd manage off of Cecil, who promptly struck out Travis Hafner and retired the final 4 batters he faced. Jose Bautista hits his first home run of the month. There would be 11 more to come, a feat matched by only Carlos Delgado and Jose Cruz Jr in club history. Travis Snider and John Buck also go deep.

May 14th - Jays 16, Rangers 10
We go from Cecil's finest performance of the month to easily his worst. The young lefty manages only 2 innings, giving up 8 earned runs and putting his team in an 8-3 hole that would soon become 9-3 after Josh Roenicke gave up a run in the 3rd. No lead, no problem. With one out in the bottom of the third, Lyle Overbay hits a solo shot to make it 9-4. Three batters later, Travis Snider works an 11 pitch at bat where he fouls off 5 consecutive pitches before he takes a 3-2 splitter out of the park to make it 9-7. A single and a walk later, Adam Lind finds the hole on the right field side to make it 9-8. And in the next at bat, the game's decisive blow comes when Vernon Wells parks a 3 run shot to make it 11-9. They would add 4 runs in the next frame as Aaron Hill and Adam Lind would go back to back with four baggers, but they wouldn't need it. Roenicke gave up another run in the 4th, but from there on the combination of Casey Janssen, Rommie Lewis, Jason Frasor and Shawn Camp shut the Rangers explosive offense down.

May 31st - Jays 3, Rays 2
We now find ourselves amidst the 9 game span that has been overblown as being the entire season on the line, with the team's first of 6 games at home against the Rays and Yankees. The inconsistent Brandon Morrow against noted Jay killer Matt Garza. Only while Brandon Morrow went 3 up, 3 down to start the game, Matt Garza gives up a base hit to Aaron Hill and then Adam Lind takes a pretty good fastball on the outside corner the other way and over the wall in left to give the Jays an early 2-0 lead. They add a run in the 5th and Morrow takes a no-hitter into the 6th, facing the minimum over that span, until Sean Rodriguez just manages to beat Alex Gonzalez' throw to first on a sharp grounder up the middle. No matter, as Jose Molina promptly picks him off 3 pitches later. Morrow goes 7 strong allowing just one run, and although the bullpen made it very interesting (as they have in every game against the Rays so far this season) Kevin Gregg is able to get the big save and push the team to within 3.5 games of the division lead.

Low Points:

May 10th - Red Sox 7, Jays 6
What would a month in review be without both an appearance from Morrow the Good and Morrow the Bad? He is certainly the latter on this night, walking 6 in just 1.2 IP and giving up 6 runs. Defense is also an issue, leading to an unearned run conceded by Josh Roenicke after an Alex Gonzalez throwing error in the 3rd. The boys tried to mount a comeback, but in the end all it did was increase the drama so Jonathan Papelbon could be extra douchey in the save.

May 20th - Mariners 4, Jays 3
Jays have a 3-1 lead going to 9, Kevin Gregg on for the save. After two ground balls that find holes, Gregg forgets what the strike zone is. Walks in a run, then a Josh Bard sac fly ties it. And then the ultimate indignity - the carcass of a future Hall of Famer named Ken Griffey Jr hits a walk off to win it for the M's and avoid the 2-game sweep. Surprisingly, Gregg manages to not blame the umpire for this one.

May 26th - Angels 6, Jays 5
Scott Downs really did have a great month of May, so it's a shame that his last few appearances kind of blew. He gets through the 8th inning in order in this one, but two of those outs came on deep fly balls. 14 pitches in, Cito Gaston opts to leave him in for the 9th. Mike Napoli leads off with a double, and Maicer Izturis is able to move him over. With 1 out, they decide to load the bases with a pair of intentional walks. Howie Kendrick grounds to Alex Gonzalez and they get the runner at home, but Bobby Abreu is able to lace a ball to left for the walk off win. It ends a road trip where the Jays won 3 of 8, disappointing but not the absolute collapse of the late May road trip last year.

What to look for in June:
Well I hate to say this again because it certainly didn't carry through into May, but Lyle Overbay has posted a line of .292/.343/.569 since May 14th. After a disastrous April, he was merely bad in May, but he'll have to really heat up in June if he's to be trade bait in July. There's really no sample size, except for maybe the last 2 games, to suggest Adam Lind is close to rebounding, so let's just say it's because he's far too talented to continue to post a sub-.700 OPS. Same could be said for Aaron Hill. And for everyone else, we're just kind of hoping business as usual continues.

In the early part of the month, things should get pretty interesting as a number of players start to return from injuries and create roster questions. Jesse Litsch is eligible to be reactivated on June 3rd, and it remains to be seen whether they intend to immediately call him up or look to get him more rehab time considering he still has options. Marc Rzepczynski is still wallowing in Triple-A, but if he starts to put it together again he'll have to be a consideration for the 5 spot in the rotation as well. And Travis Snider has been eligible to be reactivated for a couple of days, but the team doctors are being very cautious so as to avoid further aggravation of his sprained right wrist. That being said, when he returns it will force the Jays to ponder their everyday lineup. Snider had been on an absolute tear and as the team's top prospect really does need to play every day. Jose Bautista is leading the league in home runs, while Fred Lewis led the league in doubles in May. If Edwin Encarnacion starts hitting again by the time Snider returns, who sits?

Roster questions and performance pipe-dreams aside, this is going to be a tough month. Of the 26 games on the schedule, 23 of them come against teams with records above .500 and 17 are against teams in 2nd or better in their division. And among the pitchers the Jays may very well see: David Price, Wade Davis, AJ Burnett, Andy Pettite, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jeff Francis, Jon Garland, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Adam Wainright, Chris Carpenter and Cole Hamels. Oh, and that Halladay guy. I hear he's pretty good. The Jays got by on a fairly easy schedule in May, and now the question of whether the salad days are here will be answered over the next month or so. Nervous? Sure. But this is what makes baseball great. You can't get to the post-season without proving your meddle against serious competition (not unless you're in the AL Central, at least) and I for one look forward to seeing how these guys match up. And the one thing we can continue to look forward to as we've enjoyed all season is exciting baseball. Pitchers who have the ability to take no-hitters deep into games. Hitters who can turn a game around on a dime. A GM who has shown the ability to drive certain Bay Area GMs to bouts of insanity. This is a team worth following. Hopefully, after the terrifying-twenty-three are over and we get to close out the month against the miserable Tribe, this will be a team with a heavy bandwagon.