Friday, May 21, 2010

Randy Ruiz Now the Tallest Man in Japan

So the not-so-illustrious major league career of Randy Ruiz has come to at least a temporary end. His numbers (68 G, 238 PA, 12 HR, .272/.332/.488) are respectable albeit brief, a sad reflection of his own personal missteps as well as the non-managing manager's aversion to changing his lineup card. He simply couldn't get it going with any consistency this year (40 PA, .150/.150/.275), likely exacerbated by the fact that he didn't play with any consistency. He got 11 starts, only 2 of which came in consecutive games. When he did play he seemed to be pushing a bit too hard, managing to put up a goose egg in the walk category over 40 plate appearances.

To be honest, there are all kinds of red herrings in Ruiz's 2009 line to suggest a regress, starting with the small sample size. In 130 plate appearances last year, he put up a .366 BABIP, an extremely high number putting him immediately ahead of players like Chris Coghlan, Jason Bartlett, Justin Upton, Kevin Youkilis and Ryan Braun. This is an extremely difficult number to maintain, but players like that were able to maintain it through a combination of solid contact (their line drive percentages ranged from 18.9% to 26%) and, in the cases of Bartlett, Upton and Braun, speed. I don't think anyone would suggest that Randy Ruiz counts speed as a major element in his arsenal (2 career stolen bases) and despite all the power, he only posted a line drive percentage of 11.1%.

Remember when people said that Aaron Hill's 2009 numbers wouldn't hold up because his HR/FB% was too high? For Ruiz, take that and double it. And then some. If Hill's 14.9% was seen as fortunate, how about Ruiz's 31.3%? Of Ruiz's 10 home runs, 9 of them came via the fly ball against only a single line drive. Now it is true that true aggressive swinging sluggers with big time power can sustain high HR/FB% over sustained periods of time. But last year among qualified hitters, Mark Jackson lead the category with 26%, followed by Ryan Howard with 25.4% and Carlos Pena with 23.8%. Only 12 players in the game had a HR/FB% over 20% last year. Those players: Reynolds, Howard, Pena, Prince Fielder, Alex Rodriguez, Adrian Gonzalez, Russell Branyan, Nelson Cruz, Raul Ibanez, Adam Dunn, Joe Mauer and Albert Pujols. Randy Ruiz may very well have proven to be a productive hitter, but the odds of him remaining in that company for pure power were next to nil. Reasonably, we should have expected a higher than 33% drop in that category over a full season. Probably as high as 50%.

Ruiz put up a line in 2009 that was logic suggested was unsustainable. That doesn't, however, mean he didn't deserve a chance to prove logic wrong. There were stretches where Lyle Overbay, Adam Lind, and Jose Bautista were struggling and there were openings to get Randy into the lineup. For the most part, they were ignored. There was a stretch of a week between appearances for Randy Ruiz in April. Over that period, Adam Lind hit 3 for 18 with a line of .167/.273/.389. Ruiz deserved better, but at this point that's irrelevant. The question is, was this the right decision?

Given the situation, Alex Anthopoulos managed to do right by both the player and the team. For the Blue Jays, they find themselves in a position whereby the return of Travis Snider may very well push Edwin Encarnacion into the spot Ruiz has occupied in theory this year. Jose Bautista entered the season as the club's every day right fielder, but the injury to Encarnacion made him the third baseman temporarily, while the acquisition of Fred Lewis pushed Travis Snider over to right. Wouldn't you know it, they all started hitting. Snider is looking like the stud we've all expected him to be. Fred Lewis is making Brian Sabean look like such an idiot that who knows, maybe he WAS willing to trade Lincecum for Rios way back when. And Jose Bautista? Wow, I remember when a Jays Talk caller suggested JP Ricciardi should be fired for letting yet another amazing catching prospect like Robinzon Diaz get away. Funny how most people have now forgotten what a ridiculous steal that deal was. The long and short of it is that with Snider and Lewis playing like well above average regulars, E5's contract and Jose Bautista's above average defense and suddenly awesome bat making him unbenchable, they were going to have to find ways to get Encarnacion into games in ways that don't involve starting at third every day.

That means that when Snider returns, somebody has to be the odd man out. If Encarnacion is the bench player, you need defence. And between Mike McCoy and Randy Ruiz, it's pretty evident who is going to provide the most defensive value. So Ruiz gets optioned back to Vegas. What does he do there? Not play first, obviously. He's a natural DH candidate, especially given the absolutely nasty .228/.250/.346 line Brian Dopirak has put up so far in 2010. But given Ruiz's age, and the money available in Japan (Mike Wilner speculated on last night's "Miked Up Live" that Ruiz would make at least 3 times as much in Japan as he was making in America), the decision is probably the right one for the slugger.

And for the team? Well, it's not like the manager has been finding use for his entire 25 man roster. Chris Lubanski has been tearing the cover off the ball if E5 or Lind goes down and you want another 4A player to come in and ride the bench for a spell. Mike McCoy remains and gives you speed, discipline and defense in multiple positions. It was much more important to find a way to keep him on the team. And hey, it's never a bad idea to publicly do right by a player; especially when doing so doesn't cost you anything. The Jays get a sum of money from a Japanese team for a player they weren't going to use. Randy Ruiz gets to take care of his family and be set financially. And the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles get there own, un-Moustachioed version of Mr. Baseball. Adios, Randy. It might not have been much, but it would have been nice to see what you could become.

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