Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Month 1 A.D. In Review



12-12, 3rd in AL East

Notable Performers:
Ricky Romero - 5 GS, 2-1, 2.25 ERA, 36 IP, 31 SO, 13 BB
Shaun Marcum - 5 GS, 0-2, 3.44 ERA, 34 IP, 28 SO, 7 BB
Kevin Gregg - 10 G, 6/6 SV, 0.82 ERA, 11 IP, 14 SO, 1 BB
Shawn Camp - 10 G, 1-1, 2.63 ERA, 13.2 IP, 10 SO, 2 BB

Vernon Wells - 24 G, .337/.396/.717, 8 HR, 11 2B, 16 RBI, 1/1 SB
Alex Gonzalez - 24 G, .289/.317/.629, 7 HR, 10 2B, 1 3B, 19 RBI, 1/1 SB
Adam Lind - 24 G, .286/.359/.484, 4 HR, 6 2B, 14 RBI

If it was not exactly the 15-9, 1st place start of 2009, it certainly didn't lack for excitement. 35 home runs, good enough for 1st in the American League. 3 starters take no-hitters into the 6th or later, with Ricky Romero coming to within just 6 outs of a no-no. Vernon Wells shot out of the gate as if 2009 had never happened, while Lyle Overbay stumbled as if, well, 2009 had never happened. The Jays got surprise power from the shortstop position while finding themselves surprisingly weak in the bullpen. And the aggressive swinging, while it lead to a lot of four-baggers, also kept the Jays off the basepads for the most part. The team finished the month with the worst On Base Percentage in baseball, and only two players posted an OBP above .325. You weigh all the good and all the bad and come out basically a wash - this team lost as many as it won. Or won as many as it lost, depending on your disposition.

High Points:

April 13th - Jays 4, White Sox 2
Ricky Romero finally gets into the win column on his third consecutive strong start, and this time he was almost perfect. He had a no-hitter going into the 8th, before AJ Pierzynski appeared to have coached the umpire into a hit-by-pitch call on a pitch that didn't appear to hit the White Sox catcher. The next batter was Alex Rios, who took a hanging change-up into the bleachers in left to break up the no-no bid as well as the shutout. No problem though, Romero got through the 8th and then newly minted closer Kevin Gregg was lights out in the 9th.

April 19th - Blue Jays 8, Royals 1
Brandon Morrow decides to get into the no-hit bid game, taking his own into the 6th. He struck out 8 and walked only 2 to earn his first victory as a Blue Jay. Along the way he got plenty of run support, including 2 homers from Jose Bautista and an absolute moonshot from Travis Snider. Mike McCoy was also a star at the plate, going 3 for 4 on the night and stealing a pair of bases.

April 29th - Blue Jays 6, Athletics 3
John Buck, having been more or less dormant since hitting a moonshot at the home opener, exploded for 3 home runs on the night. In the third inning he took Justin Duchscherer just into the Jays bullpen. The last two were not so close, going into the second deck and off of Windows Restaurant respectively. Forgotten on the night was a pretty good pitching performance by Ricky Romero and a lights out save by Kevin Gregg, striking out the side.

Low Points:

April 12th - White Sox 8, Blue Jays 7
Jason Frasor blows his second save of the season. It would be the last save opportunity he'd appear in for the month, as Kevin Gregg has taken the ball and run with it. Also not forgotten is Brian Tallet's ineffective performance, one that he didn't significantly improve on in his next outing against the Angels. He was soon on the disabled list and Cito is now talking about trying to "get the young guys in there" uh-oh.

April 14th - White Sox 11, Blue Jays 1
Brandon Morrow has been compared to AJ Burnett a lot since he was traded to the Jays in December. Jays fans will remember AJ the Good and AJ the Bad and wondering which would show up on any given night. On the 14th, he looked like AJ the Bad. The young starter walked one and hit a batter, giving up 8 hits, 2 home runs and 7 earned runs over 4 innings of work. It didn't get any better for Merkin Valdez, who relieved Morrow and gave up 3 runs of his own in a single inning of relief. The bats didn't make any great effort to try to turn things around, notching just a pair of hits off of White Sox starter John Danks.

April 24th - Rays 9, Blue Jays 3
Starter Ricky Romero battled through 7 innings, allowing only a pair of runs off of 6 hits and walking 3, but he still had a 3-2 lead going into the bottom of the 8th. That is until Scott Downs and Casey Janssen combined to give up 7 runs over just a third of an inning. It marked a definite low point for the Jays bullpen, although not the last time they would struggle as the relief corps conceded 10 runs over the next two games.

What to look for in May:

Since April 19th, Lyle Overbay has posted a line of .295/.436/.545 with a pair of homers and 8 RBI's in 14 games. He's been the player we're used to seeing recently, laying off bad pitches and working the count while providing good line drive power and excellent contact. He'll be looking to build on an impressive finish to the month. So will Jose Bautista (.246/.290/.561 since April 19th), John Buck (who has been a boner inducing .450/.476/1.200 in his last 5 starts), Aaron Hill (.255/.375*/.447 since returning from the DL) and Travis Snider (.261/.320/.565 since April 19th). So while some players are inevitably going to come back to earth (although even trying to find recent trends that suggest Alex Gonzalez and Vernon Wells are cooling off is tough), it's notable that much of this team is on the up-swing. On the other side of things, Adam Lind will try to rebound from an ugly finish to April and start to May (.161/.250/.250 since the 19th).

On the pitching front, it's worth nothing that Brandon Morrow's ugly line (28 IP, 5.46 ERA, 33 K, 16 BB, 3 HR) is weighed down by his first two starts and that since then he's been fairly awesome (3G, 19 IP, 2.37 ERA, 25 SO, 10 BB, 0 HR). Dana Eveland has struggled mightily as of late, but unless Marc Rzepczynski is ready sooner than expected he will likely get the chance to work things out for another month or so. With Jesse Litsch and Scrabble both possibly ready for June, however, he won't have much longer than that. It is possible that if he continues to struggle they could give Brad Mills another shot in the bigs, but that Jayson Werth fifth deck shot still sticks out for me with regards to the likelihood of his soft stuff sticking in the show.

Quite quietly, the first competitive month of the Alex Anthopoulos era was pretty impressive. The Jays acquired a useful plug in Fred Lewis for next to nothing, while free agent signees John Buck, Alex Gonzalez and Kevin Gregg all performed well above expectations. The returns of the Roy Halladay trade are all performing well (Wallace - 9 HR, 21 RBI, .289/.364/.629, D'Arnaud - 3 HR, 13 RBI, .328/.362/.547, Drabek - 4-1, 3.49, 28.1 IP, 27 SO, 16 BB) and Brandon Morrow looks like something special. A reasonable man could not have asked for much more.

*Seriously.

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