This Week In The Jaysophere (5/23-5/29)

We're a day late, but this way we get to congratulate Roy on his perfect game. Here's what Jays fans were talking about before that:

DJF does exactly this, even to the point of not linking to us (Drunk Jays Fans)
Dave Stieb's slider (Mop Up Duty)
An interview with Sal Fasano (Batter's Box)
A very small silver lining to the Philly move (Bluebird Banter)
Dunedin must be doing well (1 Blue Jays Way)
An interview with Chris Michalak (1 Blue Jays Way)
Who could have predicted this? (The Blue Jay Hunter)

And one last note, congrats to the Jays for setting a new team record for most home runs in a month. Probably no surprise that Cito was the hitting coach back in 2000 when the record was last set, eh?

Awesome.

Anyone looked at the stats page of MLB.com lately?


At the beginning of the season Ryan did a list of 10 reasons to be excited about this season. I'm fairly certain that this was not on the list.

This Week In The Jaysophere (5/16-5/22)

There's a bit of a trainwreck on Rogers Sportsnet at the moment, so take your mind off it by taking in the works of some people who were more on their game this week.

We like to pick on people (The Tao of Stieb)
Why baseball is great (Mop Up Duty)
The baseball man in the Jays' early years (Mop Up Duty)
Historical Jays' draft analysis (Batter's Box)
Realignment and rethinking the schedule (Jays Journal)
Only bookmarking this so I have access to that first picture (1 Blue Jays Way)

Nice knowing you, Dana Eveland.

Randy Ruiz Now the Tallest Man in Japan

So the not-so-illustrious major league career of Randy Ruiz has come to at least a temporary end. His numbers (68 G, 238 PA, 12 HR, .272/.332/.488) are respectable albeit brief, a sad reflection of his own personal missteps as well as the non-managing manager's aversion to changing his lineup card. He simply couldn't get it going with any consistency this year (40 PA, .150/.150/.275), likely exacerbated by the fact that he didn't play with any consistency. He got 11 starts, only 2 of which came in consecutive games. When he did play he seemed to be pushing a bit too hard, managing to put up a goose egg in the walk category over 40 plate appearances.

To be honest, there are all kinds of red herrings in Ruiz's 2009 line to suggest a regress, starting with the small sample size. In 130 plate appearances last year, he put up a .366 BABIP, an extremely high number putting him immediately ahead of players like Chris Coghlan, Jason Bartlett, Justin Upton, Kevin Youkilis and Ryan Braun. This is an extremely difficult number to maintain, but players like that were able to maintain it through a combination of solid contact (their line drive percentages ranged from 18.9% to 26%) and, in the cases of Bartlett, Upton and Braun, speed. I don't think anyone would suggest that Randy Ruiz counts speed as a major element in his arsenal (2 career stolen bases) and despite all the power, he only posted a line drive percentage of 11.1%.

Remember when people said that Aaron Hill's 2009 numbers wouldn't hold up because his HR/FB% was too high? For Ruiz, take that and double it. And then some. If Hill's 14.9% was seen as fortunate, how about Ruiz's 31.3%? Of Ruiz's 10 home runs, 9 of them came via the fly ball against only a single line drive. Now it is true that true aggressive swinging sluggers with big time power can sustain high HR/FB% over sustained periods of time. But last year among qualified hitters, Mark Jackson lead the category with 26%, followed by Ryan Howard with 25.4% and Carlos Pena with 23.8%. Only 12 players in the game had a HR/FB% over 20% last year. Those players: Reynolds, Howard, Pena, Prince Fielder, Alex Rodriguez, Adrian Gonzalez, Russell Branyan, Nelson Cruz, Raul Ibanez, Adam Dunn, Joe Mauer and Albert Pujols. Randy Ruiz may very well have proven to be a productive hitter, but the odds of him remaining in that company for pure power were next to nil. Reasonably, we should have expected a higher than 33% drop in that category over a full season. Probably as high as 50%.

Ruiz put up a line in 2009 that was logic suggested was unsustainable. That doesn't, however, mean he didn't deserve a chance to prove logic wrong. There were stretches where Lyle Overbay, Adam Lind, and Jose Bautista were struggling and there were openings to get Randy into the lineup. For the most part, they were ignored. There was a stretch of a week between appearances for Randy Ruiz in April. Over that period, Adam Lind hit 3 for 18 with a line of .167/.273/.389. Ruiz deserved better, but at this point that's irrelevant. The question is, was this the right decision?

Given the situation, Alex Anthopoulos managed to do right by both the player and the team. For the Blue Jays, they find themselves in a position whereby the return of Travis Snider may very well push Edwin Encarnacion into the spot Ruiz has occupied in theory this year. Jose Bautista entered the season as the club's every day right fielder, but the injury to Encarnacion made him the third baseman temporarily, while the acquisition of Fred Lewis pushed Travis Snider over to right. Wouldn't you know it, they all started hitting. Snider is looking like the stud we've all expected him to be. Fred Lewis is making Brian Sabean look like such an idiot that who knows, maybe he WAS willing to trade Lincecum for Rios way back when. And Jose Bautista? Wow, I remember when a Jays Talk caller suggested JP Ricciardi should be fired for letting yet another amazing catching prospect like Robinzon Diaz get away. Funny how most people have now forgotten what a ridiculous steal that deal was. The long and short of it is that with Snider and Lewis playing like well above average regulars, E5's contract and Jose Bautista's above average defense and suddenly awesome bat making him unbenchable, they were going to have to find ways to get Encarnacion into games in ways that don't involve starting at third every day.

That means that when Snider returns, somebody has to be the odd man out. If Encarnacion is the bench player, you need defence. And between Mike McCoy and Randy Ruiz, it's pretty evident who is going to provide the most defensive value. So Ruiz gets optioned back to Vegas. What does he do there? Not play first, obviously. He's a natural DH candidate, especially given the absolutely nasty .228/.250/.346 line Brian Dopirak has put up so far in 2010. But given Ruiz's age, and the money available in Japan (Mike Wilner speculated on last night's "Miked Up Live" that Ruiz would make at least 3 times as much in Japan as he was making in America), the decision is probably the right one for the slugger.

And for the team? Well, it's not like the manager has been finding use for his entire 25 man roster. Chris Lubanski has been tearing the cover off the ball if E5 or Lind goes down and you want another 4A player to come in and ride the bench for a spell. Mike McCoy remains and gives you speed, discipline and defense in multiple positions. It was much more important to find a way to keep him on the team. And hey, it's never a bad idea to publicly do right by a player; especially when doing so doesn't cost you anything. The Jays get a sum of money from a Japanese team for a player they weren't going to use. Randy Ruiz gets to take care of his family and be set financially. And the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles get there own, un-Moustachioed version of Mr. Baseball. Adios, Randy. It might not have been much, but it would have been nice to see what you could become.

This Week In The Jaysophere (5/9-5/15)

Not that we're ever complaining about the quality of Jays blogging, but this week was full of particularly interesting posts!

Medium-high hopes for Casey Janssen (The Tao of Stieb)
Broadcasting developments, minus the broads (Drunk Jays Fans)
Can't we send the G20 to Philly instead? (Drunk Jays Fans)
Alex Anthopolous is really just Pat Gillick with more ouzo (Mop Up Duty)
Lest we forget when we first loved Buck Martinez (Mop Up Duty)
Bobby Bonilla, Financial Panther (Mop Up Duty)
Brett Wallace's bat versus Cito Gaston's lineup theories (Jays Journal)
A modest proposal: Blue Jay Culture (Bluebird Banter)
The Jaysosphere versus Homeland Security (1 Blue Jays Way)
The greatest moment in Blue Jay history (Blue Jay Hunter)

How You Gonna Keep 'Em Down On The Farm?

Often times, we don't pay attention to the Jays' minor league system until somebody gets called up, at which point we either second-guess the Jays for calling up somebody who wasn't putting up great numbers, or ask why they weren't brought up sooner.

So we thought we'd change that. Who in Las Vegas could potentially make a difference to the big club? Who clearly needs more time in the minors? Who in New Hampshire could benefit from a move upwards and westwards?

Looking over the Las Vegas numbers, the biggest surprise is that the team leader in batting average and OBP is Chris Aguila. I've never heard of Chris Aguila, I'd have guessed he was a Mexican pro wrestler, but there he is--hitting .329 as a versatile outfielder.

(We're on to your secret identity, Chris.)

Aguila has had cups of coffee with the Marlins and the Mets in the past, and spent 2009 in Japan. He's always been what baseball nerds like to call an 'AAAA' player--one of the better players in AAA, but never able to hack it in the majors. At 30 years of age, and not on the 40-man roster, I doubt we'll be seeing Aguila in Toronto unless there's a major injury crisis.

Brett Wallace, on the other hand, is somebody who everybody was expecting in Toronto by the end of the year, and it looks as though he's meeting those expectations. While it's not a bad idea to hold him in Vegas as long as possible for service time considerations, I'd suggest giving him some regular playing time in the last quarter of the season, leading to a Rookie of the Year campaign in 2011.

Wallace is the 51s' leader in slugging percentage by quite a margin, giving him a .995 OPS--also solidly in first place. He's hitting .311 with ten homers. 35 strikeouts, though what you'd have to expect from somebody with his makeup, is a little high, but 14 walks offset that total somewhat.

Moving to the other side of the spectrum, J.P. Arencibia is struggling to a .238/.306/.366 line--which actually makes him the better of the 51s' two catchers--and sleeper favourite Brian Dopirak has a horrid .258 OBP.

On the mound, most of those who deserve shots at the bigs--Brett Cecil, Josh Roenicke, and Rommie Lewis--have already been called up. Brad Mills also stands out: a 2.53 ERA, with left-handed hitters only batting .143 against him, and he'll hopefully get a look if another starter is needed.

Surprisingly, though, most of the names that you'd expect to be on the cusp of that Vegas-to-Toronto flight find themselves struggling in AAA--Jeremy Accardo has been average at best, compiling a 3.60 ERA, David Purcey and Jesse Carlson have been worse in their relief roles, and Merkin Valdez has a 12.46 ERA through five abbreviated appearances.

In New Hampshire, the picture is a bit more rosy. Brian Jeroloman probably deserves a shot at replacing either of the ineffective catchers in Vegas; he's hitting .325 and getting on base neither every second trip to the plate, as is infielder Brad Emaus. Zach Drabek is pitching well, but not well enough to crack Vegas, while Zach Stewart's 6.84 ERA is ugly even for that level. The Fisher Cats' best pitchers are a pair of surprises: Trystan Magnuson, a Vancouver-born righty with a 1.40 ERA through twelve release appearances and the name of a misguided viking, and Randy Boone, who has quietly worked his way through the Jays' system since being taken in the seventh round of the 2007 draft.

Okay, so maybe there's no immediate saviour on the Jays' horizon--Brett Wallace is close, but he'd be more valuable to us in 2016 than in 2010. But there is a solid crop of players who, with the right amount of development, could play major roles for Toronto in seasons to come.

This Week In The Jaysophere (5/2-5/8)

As usual, we round up the best Jays blogging we've seen anywhere in...that small list of links on the right-side of the page.

Sniderman, Sniderman, does whatever a Sniderman does (The Tao of Stieb)
We were supposed to have good defense? Yeah, about that... (Mop Up Duty)
Gil Patterson Will Be Your Pitching Coach For $20 (Mop Up Duty)
Why You Should Go To The Ballgame (Mop Up Duty, these guys have been on fire lately)
Infield Fly Meets Outfield Walls (Infield Fly)
Our Minor League Outfield (Bluebird Banter)
Retro: Moseby Steals Second Twice (The Blue Jay Hunter)

Until next time!

Month 1 A.D. In Review

12-12, 3rd in AL East

Notable Performers:
Ricky Romero - 5 GS, 2-1, 2.25 ERA, 36 IP, 31 SO, 13 BB
Shaun Marcum - 5 GS, 0-2, 3.44 ERA, 34 IP, 28 SO, 7 BB
Kevin Gregg - 10 G, 6/6 SV, 0.82 ERA, 11 IP, 14 SO, 1 BB
Shawn Camp - 10 G, 1-1, 2.63 ERA, 13.2 IP, 10 SO, 2 BB

Vernon Wells - 24 G, .337/.396/.717, 8 HR, 11 2B, 16 RBI, 1/1 SB
Alex Gonzalez - 24 G, .289/.317/.629, 7 HR, 10 2B, 1 3B, 19 RBI, 1/1 SB
Adam Lind - 24 G, .286/.359/.484, 4 HR, 6 2B, 14 RBI

If it was not exactly the 15-9, 1st place start of 2009, it certainly didn't lack for excitement. 35 home runs, good enough for 1st in the American League. 3 starters take no-hitters into the 6th or later, with Ricky Romero coming to within just 6 outs of a no-no. Vernon Wells shot out of the gate as if 2009 had never happened, while Lyle Overbay stumbled as if, well, 2009 had never happened. The Jays got surprise power from the shortstop position while finding themselves surprisingly weak in the bullpen. And the aggressive swinging, while it lead to a lot of four-baggers, also kept the Jays off the basepads for the most part. The team finished the month with the worst On Base Percentage in baseball, and only two players posted an OBP above .325. You weigh all the good and all the bad and come out basically a wash - this team lost as many as it won. Or won as many as it lost, depending on your disposition.

High Points:

April 13th - Jays 4, White Sox 2
Ricky Romero finally gets into the win column on his third consecutive strong start, and this time he was almost perfect. He had a no-hitter going into the 8th, before AJ Pierzynski appeared to have coached the umpire into a hit-by-pitch call on a pitch that didn't appear to hit the White Sox catcher. The next batter was Alex Rios, who took a hanging change-up into the bleachers in left to break up the no-no bid as well as the shutout. No problem though, Romero got through the 8th and then newly minted closer Kevin Gregg was lights out in the 9th.

April 19th - Blue Jays 8, Royals 1
Brandon Morrow decides to get into the no-hit bid game, taking his own into the 6th. He struck out 8 and walked only 2 to earn his first victory as a Blue Jay. Along the way he got plenty of run support, including 2 homers from Jose Bautista and an absolute moonshot from Travis Snider. Mike McCoy was also a star at the plate, going 3 for 4 on the night and stealing a pair of bases.

April 29th - Blue Jays 6, Athletics 3
John Buck, having been more or less dormant since hitting a moonshot at the home opener, exploded for 3 home runs on the night. In the third inning he took Justin Duchscherer just into the Jays bullpen. The last two were not so close, going into the second deck and off of Windows Restaurant respectively. Forgotten on the night was a pretty good pitching performance by Ricky Romero and a lights out save by Kevin Gregg, striking out the side.

Low Points:

April 12th - White Sox 8, Blue Jays 7
Jason Frasor blows his second save of the season. It would be the last save opportunity he'd appear in for the month, as Kevin Gregg has taken the ball and run with it. Also not forgotten is Brian Tallet's ineffective performance, one that he didn't significantly improve on in his next outing against the Angels. He was soon on the disabled list and Cito is now talking about trying to "get the young guys in there" uh-oh.

April 14th - White Sox 11, Blue Jays 1
Brandon Morrow has been compared to AJ Burnett a lot since he was traded to the Jays in December. Jays fans will remember AJ the Good and AJ the Bad and wondering which would show up on any given night. On the 14th, he looked like AJ the Bad. The young starter walked one and hit a batter, giving up 8 hits, 2 home runs and 7 earned runs over 4 innings of work. It didn't get any better for Merkin Valdez, who relieved Morrow and gave up 3 runs of his own in a single inning of relief. The bats didn't make any great effort to try to turn things around, notching just a pair of hits off of White Sox starter John Danks.

April 24th - Rays 9, Blue Jays 3
Starter Ricky Romero battled through 7 innings, allowing only a pair of runs off of 6 hits and walking 3, but he still had a 3-2 lead going into the bottom of the 8th. That is until Scott Downs and Casey Janssen combined to give up 7 runs over just a third of an inning. It marked a definite low point for the Jays bullpen, although not the last time they would struggle as the relief corps conceded 10 runs over the next two games.

What to look for in May:
Since April 19th, Lyle Overbay has posted a line of .295/.436/.545 with a pair of homers and 8 RBI's in 14 games. He's been the player we're used to seeing recently, laying off bad pitches and working the count while providing good line drive power and excellent contact. He'll be looking to build on an impressive finish to the month. So will Jose Bautista (.246/.290/.561 since April 19th), John Buck (who has been a boner inducing .450/.476/1.200 in his last 5 starts), Aaron Hill (.255/.375*/.447 since returning from the DL) and Travis Snider (.261/.320/.565 since April 19th). So while some players are inevitably going to come back to earth (although even trying to find recent trends that suggest Alex Gonzalez and Vernon Wells are cooling off is tough), it's notable that much of this team is on the up-swing. On the other side of things, Adam Lind will try to rebound from an ugly finish to April and start to May (.161/.250/.250 since the 19th).

On the pitching front, it's worth nothing that Brandon Morrow's ugly line (28 IP, 5.46 ERA, 33 K, 16 BB, 3 HR) is weighed down by his first two starts and that since then he's been fairly awesome (3G, 19 IP, 2.37 ERA, 25 SO, 10 BB, 0 HR). Dana Eveland has struggled mightily as of late, but unless Marc Rzepczynski is ready sooner than expected he will likely get the chance to work things out for another month or so. With Jesse Litsch and Scrabble both possibly ready for June, however, he won't have much longer than that. It is possible that if he continues to struggle they could give Brad Mills another shot in the bigs, but that Jayson Werth fifth deck shot still sticks out for me with regards to the likelihood of his soft stuff sticking in the show.

Quite quietly, the first competitive month of the Alex Anthopoulos era was pretty impressive. The Jays acquired a useful plug in Fred Lewis for next to nothing, while free agent signees John Buck, Alex Gonzalez and Kevin Gregg all performed well above expectations. The returns of the Roy Halladay trade are all performing well (Wallace - 9 HR, 21 RBI, .289/.364/.629, D'Arnaud - 3 HR, 13 RBI, .328/.362/.547, Drabek - 4-1, 3.49, 28.1 IP, 27 SO, 16 BB) and Brandon Morrow looks like something special. A reasonable man could not have asked for much more.

*Seriously.

Defending Attacking Cito

In Saturday's round-up of the Jaysosphere, I included a link to this post from Batter's Box--a lengthy critique of criticism of Cito Gaston as a manager. Overall, I agree with most of their points--Cito was a manager ahead of his time in the early 90s, now that the game has caught up to him, he doesn't seem like such a genius.

Fine. Fair enough. But there's one passage that stands out to be as exceedingly wrong and worth pointing out:

And the undercurrent to all of this?

No, not race - at least, I've never thought so. Not then and not now. I have worried that could be an issue. I'm always going to be suspicious when a 66 year old black man is universally called by a nickname rather than his surname.

A few people took the author to task for this in the comments section, but here are my two cents on the issue of Cito and racism.

Cito is called "Cito" because of a sense of familiarity on the part of Toronto fans, who remember the late 80s/early 90s period when the Jays were the hottest ticket in the country. Toronto fans call their manager Cito because they [i]like[/i] him--I'm too young to know this for sure, but I bet Cito's predecessors were casually referred to as "Jimy" and "Bobby", contrast that to the obvious disdain whenever somebody mentions "Tosca" or "Gibbons".

Another example would be Buck Martinez--I don't know a single person who didn't call him "Buck" during his managerial run--and like Williams and Cox, he's as white as they come.

But let's step away from the Jays and look at other famous baseball managers. Sparky. Casey. Even Lou Piniella and Tony La Russa sometimes get the first-name treatment. All white.

Other Toronto sports figures, outside of baseball? Not so much lately--too many Pats and Brians out there to have the name refer to just one--but what about Harold and Punch, back in the day? Or everyone's favourite ex-Leaf coach, Roger? Or if we're allowing players, Dougie, Wendell, Mats, and Borje?

My point is this: Cito Gaston may not be the best manager in baseball history, or even Blue Jays history. Second-guessing him is perfectly valid. On the other hand, sometimes people may go too far in expressing their displeasure with Cito, just as they do with any other coach in any other sport.

But that expression is not a sign of racism in and of itself, nor is referring to him by his nickname--that's a sign of endearment, if anything. A sign that we like this guy better than the average bum the Jays trot out behind the bench.

This Week In The Jaysophere (4/25-5/1)

It's been a quiet week here, but the rest of the Jaysosphere (how has that not taken off yet?) has been buzzing. Your highlights:

Grumpy grumpiness from a grump (The Tao of Stieb)
Major League Baseball vs. Twitter (Drunk Jays Fans)
The important question about John Buck's tri-dinger performance (Mop Up Duty)
A somewhat defense of Cito (Batter's Box)
What about Dwayne Murphy? (Bluebird Banter)
I'm really just posting this to annoy my co-blogger (Jays Balk)