NUMB3RS: Small Sample Sizes

As shown in previous installments of this feature, sometimes statistics are a great way to learn about what separates the good baseball players from the bad, why certain pitchers should make the team over others, and so forth.

My personal favourite statistics, though, are those which are just plain silly.



There's Vernon Wells. He's doing pretty well this year, you know. Five hits in seven at bats, three of which went out of the park. Pretty impressive.

Okay, so even the densest stathead knows that this is an aberration--Vernon won't keep up his .714 average for even a week, much less the entire season. Nor will he hit anywhere near the 243 homers he's currently on pace for. But can we get anything out of this?

Only twice before have Jays players hit three homers over the first two games of the year. Let's look at them.

In 1988, George Bell hit three bombs on Opening Day. The baseball press had reason to think this was a harbinger of good things to come--Bell was the reigning AL MVP, having just hit 47 home runs in one of the best offensive seasons in Toronto history. Three jacks in the first game? Just picking up where he left off.

As it turned out, that might have been the peak of Bell's career. Despite playing almost every game, he only hit 21 more homers in all of 1988, and finished the year with a rather pedestrian .269 batting average and .304 OBP. Certainly not what April fans had in mind.

In 2000, Shannon Stewart--a leadoff hitter known more for above-average speed and defence than any sort of power--accomplished the same feat. Two homers on opening day, one more the next. He would turn out to have one of his better years: .319 with 21 homers and 69 RBI.

The good thing about Vernon Mach 2010 is that the expectations on him are very, very low--if he ends up with Bell's 1988 numbers, nobody will really be surprised. If he ends up with Stewart's 2000 numbers, we'll be a little surprised at the high average. Pretty much any solid contribution will be a welcome surprise.

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On the other end of the spectrum, three Jays are currently on pace to not get a single hit all season oh my god what bums: Jose Bautista, Lyle Overbay, Edwin Encarnacion.

Again, I decided it was worth delving into whether this is an aberration, and what it could mean for the seasons these three will have.

Since the World Series years, there have been eleven instances of Jays going hitless in the first two games (minimum 6 AB). Their year-end stats (first three are batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage):

David Eckstein (2008): .265/.343/.349, 2 HR, 27 RBI
Corey Koskie (2005): .249/.337/.398, 11 HR, 36 RBI
Carlos Delgado (2004): .269/.372/.535, 32 HR, 99 RBI
Chris Woodward (2003): .261/.316/.395, 7 HR, 45 RBI
Vernon Wells (2002): .275/.305/.457, 23 HR, 100 RBI
Homer Bush (2000): .215/.271/.253, 1 HR, 18 RBI
Carlos Delgado (2000): .344/.470/.664, 41 HR, 137 RBI
Shawn Green (1998): .278/.334/.510, 35 HR, 100 RBI
Darrin Fletcher (1998): .283/.328/.410, 9 HR, 52 RBI
Carlos Garcia (1997): .220/.253/.309, 3 HR, 23 RBI
Alex Gonzalez (1994): .151/.224/.245, 0 HR, 1 RBI

Can we learn anything from this? Probably not. There's a range from one of the best offensive seasons the Jays have had in this era--Delgado's 2000--to two of the worst regular starters they've ever trotted out in Bush and Garcia. Gonzalez shouldn't really count, as he only appeared in 15 games and spent the bulk of the year in the minors.

Overall, though, we do see a trend toward slightly below-average numbers. It makes sense when you think about it--if a player hits amazingly badly over two games, he's probably a poor hitter who won't do that great over the course of the season as a whole.

If true, this is a problem. These three (perhaps excepting Overbay) were guys Cito was counting on to fill positions for a year or two, until young guys were ready. Below-average is not what was expected.

Then again, do we really know anything? After all, it's just two games!