Evolution of Toronto closers

The Toronto Blue Jays flew into Major League Baseball in 1977, a handful of years before Rich Gossage would pioneer the modern closer role. Although Pete Vukovich was credited with saves in the Jays' first two victories, he was not what we would call a closer--he would average nearly three innings per appearance over the course of the season. (In fact, out of the 15 pitchers Toronto used in 1977, only four of them didn't make at least one start!)

Although names like Tom Buskey, Roy Lee Jackson, and Joey McLaughin was see their share of saves in the early years, it wasn't until 1985 that the Jays employed a true stopper. That was this man, acquired from Oakland for Dave Collins and Alfredo Griffin:


Caudill came to Toronto with a great reputation--in the previous three years, between Seattle and Oakland, he had racked up a very impressive total of 88 saves.

Caudill started 1985 strong, with nine saves by May 26, but after another two months, he found himself pushed out of the closer role by a hard-throwing forkballer from Texas. You might recognize him:


Tom Henke had solved his control issues, and was now the strongest arm in Toronto's bullpen. He notched his first save of the year on August 2, and managed twelve more by the end of the year, giving the Jays a virtual certain shutout in the ninth inning as they captured their first AL East pennant. Henke's ERA in that two-month season was a sparkling 2.03.

In 1986, Caudill flamed out spectacularly, and Henke feel back to earth--27 saves, but a 3.35 ERA, and the Jays finished in a disappointing fourth place. There was talk of replacing Henke with Mark Eichhorn, who had been absolutely spectacular as a 25-year-old setup man (1.74 ERA).

The next year--the year we still don't like to talk about--Henke and Eichhorn were the only reliable arms in Jimy Williams' bullpen, with Henke's 0-6 record betraying his 2.49 ERA and 34 saves.

1988 through 1991 were more of the same, with Duane Ward emerging as a strong setup man, and Henke posting solid numbers by that day's standards (including a still-amazing 1.92 ERA in '89).

The Jays finally captured their first World Series in 1992, and Henke was no small part of that season--34 saves and a 2.26 ERA. Henke also delivered five saves in the postseason and was the team's best reliever, even though it was Mike Timlin on the mound when the Jays won the championship.


Big money lured Henke to Texas for 1993, and so Ward stepped into his shoes. That was the Blue Jay Way in those days--the master leaves, so the understudy takes over. Ward responded with one of the best seasons a Jays closer would ever put together--45 saves and 2.13 ERA. This feat was all the more astonishing given his setup corps were an aged Eichhorn and a barely-above-average Danny Cox.

Unfortunately, Ward would never get to follow up on his sublime 1993--an arm injury kept him out for the entire 1994 section, and after bombing in four appearances in 1995, he called it a career.

This left the Jays scrambling for a closer, with limited success--Timlin was ineffective, unsurprisingly so was Todd Stottlemyre, and Cox had his own injury problems, but 29-year-old rookie Darren Hall emerged with a respectable 17 saves.

1995 was equally tough--Hall turned out to be a one-year wonder, and Tony Castillo spent much of the year in the role by default, but Timlin emerged late in the year as a capable if unspectacular closer, a role he would hold through 1996 and into 1997.

Timlin was traded to Seattle in July 1997, and rookie Kelvim Escobar emerged as the latest uber-closer, compiling 14 saves in only 27 late-season appearances. Couple that with the repurposing of Paul Quantrill into one of the best setup men in baseball (1.94 ERA in 77 games!), and it looked like the Jays' bullpen might be back on track.

(My memory says that Bill Risley was also expected to be a closer at some point in 1997, but his stats during his entire Toronto career were so terrible that I assume I was hallucinating that particular memory.)

For 1998, the Jays weren't taking any chances. Randy Myers was the best closer in baseball in 1997 (45 saves and a 1.51 ERA), and even better, he was a free agent. So the Jays signed him, figuring with Quantrill as a setup man, Escobar could be used as rotation depth behind names like Clemens, Hentgen, and Woody Williams.

Instead, Myers struggled to a 4.46 ERA, and was sent to San Diego in August in one of the worst waiver claims of all-time (San Diego didn't want Myers, but they put in a claim because they didn't want him going to a rival team, then Gord Ash called their bluff and didn't pull him back.) Robert Person was allowed eight save opportunities despite an ERA over 7.00, and a 40-year-old Dave Stieb finished fifth on the team's saves leaderboard. Not a good year.


Another new face emerged in 1999. Billy Koch had come up through the Jays' system as a starter, but arm surgery somehow led to him becoming a fireballing closer who everybody knew could do just as well in the majors as he had in the minors. In his rookie year, Koch delivered a respectable 31 saves while anchoring a very weak bullpen (Paul Spoljaric and John Frascatore were regulars, for example).

Koch was even better in 2000, notching up 33 saves and a 2.63 ERA, as well as an impressive 9-3 record. 2001 was a step backwards, but as the next-best choice was Scott Eyre, Koch kept his job. Trouble blew into town after 2001 in the form of J.P. Ricciardi, who traded Koch to Oakland for Justin Miller, a starter who never became much of anything, and moved Escobar back into the closer's role for the first time in years. Escobar's 38 saves were impressive enough, but his 4.27 ERA gives you an idea why that year's team was not a contender.

Escobar was moved back into the rotation early in 2003 in favour of a "closer by committee" that meant mostly Aquilino Lopez and Cliff Politte. Jason Frasor headed the committee in 2004, but proved himself not quite ready for prime time, and Miguel Batista was converted into a closer for 2005, keeping the job for the entire year despite every other regular in the Jays' bullpen posting a better ERA.


Having learned nothing from their last purchase of a free agent closer who had done well in Baltimore, the Jays signed B.J. Ryan to a huge deal for 2006 and beyond. The investment seemed wise at first, given Ryan's posting of the best Jays closer stats since Duane Ward's 1993 (38 saves, 1.37 ERA), but we all know what happened next--injuries took their toll, and Ryan's contract turned into one of the worst in baseball, as names like Jeremy Accardo and Scott Downs were used as stoppers instead.

Kevin Gregg is the latest man to try and recapture the glory years of Ward and Henke, and so far it seems like he just might do it. But time will tell, and the odds certainly show that he's much more likely to fall short of those expectations.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS CAREER SAVE LEADERS
1. Tom Henke (217)
2. Duane Ward (121)
3. Billy Koch (100)
4. B.J. Ryan (75)
5. Kelvim Escobar (58)

This Week In The Jaysophere (4/18-4/24)

This week's edition comes with a special note of thanks to 1 Blue Jays Way, which follows and writes about every single Jays and Lansing Lugnuts (!) game, and recently linked to this site. That said, on with the best we could find in the past seven days...

Baseball America doesn't think a lot of Hechavarria (Jays Journal, and on that note can we please give this guy a nickname?)
What to do with Lyle Overbay? (Jays Journal)
Late live perspective of the home opener (1 Blue Jays Way)
The first hint that Buck Martinez might not be all he's cracked up to be (Drunk Jays Fans)
Yet another Bullpen Gospels review (Batter's Box)
Pitching to Travis Snider (Ghostrunner on First)
Really? Instant replay? That's what this is about? (Bluebird Banter)
The Jays have a short minor-league pitcher (Jays Balk)
Cito sucks, circa 1993 (The Blue Jay Hunter)

Want your Jays blog added to our listings? Let us know in the comments!

NUMB3RS: Simmer Down on Overbay and Wallace

Lyle Overbay (2009, MLB) - .265/.372/.466, 16 HR, 64 RBIs
Brett Wallace (2009, AA/AAA) .293/.367/.455, 20 HR, 63 RBIs

As one of the most unflinching Lyle Overbay supporters out there, I can't find it in me to say the haters are wrong so far in 2010. I mean, I suppose I could point to the fact that his line drive percentage (.122) and batting average on balls in play (.171) are close enough to suggest he may be getting unlucky (traditionally BABIP tends to be about .120 higher than LD%, in this case just .049). I could also point to his usage against left handed pitching this year, against whom he has yet to reach base in 16 plate appearances while grounding out 7 times and racking up 4 strike outs. But no matter how far I may reach, the truth is that Lyle Overbay has been pretty damn bad at the plate in 2010.

Meanwhile one of the players who came to Toronto as an indirect result of the Doc Deal, Brett Wallace, is tearing it up in Las Vegas. Through the first 15 games of the PCL season, Wallace has hit 6 home runs, compiling a batting line of .269/.367/.635. If the move to a new ball club or position is bothering him, you couldn't tell from his statistics.

Unsurprisingly, the calls for Overbay to be replaced with Wallace have started to pop up. Far be it from me to even acknowledge an article that suggests Alex Gonzalez and his career .294 on base percentage (only slightly better at .319 in 2010 thus far) should be hitting lead-off, but it is an acknowledgment of a growing feeling in Toronto. And hey, there is no doubt whatsoever that this is the long-term plan, maybe even not so long-term. But for a number of reasons, an April switcheroo is both reckless and potentially harmful.

For one, it would involve essentially abandoning any attempt to return any sort of value for Lyle Overbay. Lyle, in his 5th and presumably final season with the club, has always had value as a well disciplined, defensively sound first baseman who could be counted on to reach base at a pretty much clockwork on-base-percentage of .360-.370. He entered the season with a .275/.356/.449 line over his time with the club. His varied skills, as both a righty masher (.282/.379/.463 against them in his career) and an above average defensive corner man could make him useful trade-bait come the July trade deadline, when most of the 7 million due him has been doled out.

So let's say they play the hot hand (albeit one that's been hot over 15 games, hardly a large sample size) and bring up Wallace to start at first. The glut of players who can literally only play first necessitates that either Ruiz or Overbay come off the 25 man roster. I'm not sure what's the worst outcome here: a 7 million dollar bench player in the big leagues or a 7 million dollar starter in Las Vegas. Of course you could also release him and eat the remaining 6.3 million or so due to him this year. But with these options, you negate any return on a 33 year old who has been a been a well above average major leaguer for the majority of his career and as recently as last year, all because of a slow start over 16 games (the most recent 3 of which he put up a line of .333/.500/.556).

As BJ Ryan/Frank Thomasian as the Overbay scenario sounds, the risk is even greater for Brett Wallace. Yes Wallace's numbers look great. They also look very different from the player he's been projected as. Originally thought of as an excellent contact hitter with plus discipline and home run power in the low to mid 20s, he's put up a lower than career normal batting average of .269, getting on base at about the same clip as last year but with much higher power numbers. Kevin Youkilis doesn't become Adam Dunn overnight. As much as I like Brett Wallace and expect him to be an excellent hitter for years to come, I'm also not chomping at the bit to start the clock on his major league service time based on a 15 game sample size that may be a total outlier.

And what of the service time question? Were they to hold off until May 1st to make the move, Wallace would accumulate 156 days of service time were he to remain with the club through the season, 16 days short of the 172 that constitute an entire year of MLB service. That being said, while he would not have 3 years of service time at the end of the 2012 season he would have 2.156, which would make him a likely candidate for Super 2 arbitration eligibility. Super 2 takes all the players with 2 years of service time and at least 86 days the year prior, the top 17 percent of which in terms of playing time become eligible for arbitration a year early. Were Wallace to come up to replace Overbay as the starting first baseman and stick, he'd be a virtual lock as a Super 2. If Wallace hits like we all hope he's going to hit, that's a swing in the millions of dollars. All for a season where this team has been forecast to finish no higher than 4th. In a division where we need to be almost perfect financially to compete with the two-headed monster of the Red Sox and Yankees.

Don't get me wrong, we're going to see Brett Wallace this year. If he weren't up by August 1st I'd be shocked. I'm as excited as anyone to see the future that involves guys like Kyle Drabek, Travis D'Arnaud, Brett Wallace and Adeiny Hechavarria get here. But bringing up Wallace early won't get it here early, and not at least giving Overbay the chance to return to the asset he was merely a month ago is the kind of short sighted thinking that this team's GM is trying to avoid.

Tim Johnson Wants In

I know what you're thinking.

"Tim Johnson? That guy who lied about his military service, lost the dressing room, never got us to the playoffs, has jumped around foreign and independent leagues ever since, and was never that good of a player? That Tim Johnson?"

Yes. That Tim Johnson. That's me. And I want to come back to Toronto. I think I'm the right choice to manage the Blue Jays in 2011 and beyond. Here's why.

In 1998, the first season after I took over from Cito Gaston, the Jays won 88 games. The last time they won that many or more? 1993, the last time they were in the playoffs. Nobody has got them closer since then than I did.

You'd think that would be enough, really. Sixteen seasons, six managers, and I was the most successful. If Cito could be given another shot, why not me?

Okay, fine, issues about "character" and "this is a different team than in 1998".

The 2011 Jays will have guys like Travis Snider and Brett Wallace, youngsters just breaking into the lineup and proving their worth as major league players. How's that any different from 1998, when I coached Shawn Green and Shannon Stewart to their breakout seasons?

Some positions may be filled by journeymen with no past and no future? Hello! My opening-day cornermen were Ed Sprague and Mike Stanley! Craig Grebeck made over 100 appearances at second base! Not to mention Darrin Fletcher and Tony Fernandez, who came to Toronto as journeymen, but under my leadership proved that their most productive years were yet to come!

Anthopolous might bring in aging veterans with limited upside? I was forced to keep Juan Samuel on my bench all season despite his only hitting .180!

There's a host of talented kids in AAA and I'll need to try them all to find out which ones succeed? Back in 1998, I had to try a bunch of kids with no chance at succeeding--Kevin Brown, Mark Dalesandro, Patrick Lennon, Kevin Witt!

I was the one who turned Paul Quantrill from an inconsistent and sub-par starter into one of the best middle relievers in the game, who did the same to Kelvim Escobar, and who managed Roger Clemens to his fifth Cy Young.

I was the one who saw the potential in Carlos Almanzar long before anybody else did, and who knew Dave Stieb might have the stuff for a comeback.

But the best reason I'm qualified to be the manager of the Toronto Blue Jays in 2011 any beyond?

Back when I was serving in 'Nam, my platoon was ambushed in the jungle by a squad of Viet Cong.

They showed no mercy--we were willing to let their unit pass through peacefully, but they were out for blood. Not just our American blood, but any locals who were in the jungle. Not even the monkeys were safe.

Suddenly, I noticed that a lot of the locals seemed to be throwing themselves in front of the Viet Cong guns. Knowing that even though they might be savages, they weren't suicidal savages, I knew something had to be up.

I rushed over to the scene, and I saw what was going on--they were trying to protect a pregnant woman. Over the objections of my commanding officer, I got the Viet Cong's attention, and distracted them long enough for the rest of my platoon to get into position.

After the threat was over with, I noticed that the woman was about to give birth. Recalling my emergency training, I helped deliver her baby.

Twenty-some odd years later, I'm managing the Toronto Blue Jays, and I can say without any hyperbole that it was the greatest thrill of my life to see that baby make his first two starts as a Major League Baseball pitcher. I always knew Roy Halladay was destined for great things.

But enough about that. I cleaned up Cito's mess once before, I can do it again.

--Tim

Tim Johnson is a former manager of the Toronto Blue Jays and major league ballplayer. As far as we know, he did not save Roy Halladay's mother from certain death in Vietnam, but some of the sentiment may be accurate.

This Week In The Jaysophere (4/11-4/17)

Well that wasn't a fun afternoon. To get your mind off the drubbing, here's some of this week's best Jays-related writing:

What you should know about Fred Lewis (The Tao of Stieb)
Giving a lowly beat writer far more attention than he deserves (Drunk Jays Fans)
Jays offense can't hit fastballs (Ghostrunner on First)
Reviewing the Halladay trade (Part X of a multi-part series) (Jays Journal)
What is the job of the manager? (Bluebird Banter)
On Romero's great performance (Jays Balk)
A look at attendance (Blue Jay Hunter)

And a special hat tip to Jays Journal, both for linking to us and for being updated faster than we can read it.

Whither Johnny Mac?

So the Jays have acquired left fielder Fred Lewis from the San Francisco Giants for a player to be named later or cash considerations. The 29 year old outfielder provides, by all accounts, plus defense, plus speed and solid numbers against right-handed pitching. That he would be an excellent lead-off platoon candidate with Jose Bautista has already been pointed out numerous times. The deal even has Giants fans jumping on the bandwagon of Tank Nation. The player fell out with his former organization, and Alex Anthopoulos provided both with the opportunity for a fresh start, all the while acquiring a talented player with much more use than the Menchersons of past seasons. No brainer.

It does however create an interesting roster question. For the next 7 days there isn't a problem; with Aaron Hill on the 15 day DL they have room on the 25 man roster for Lewis. However, on April 23rd Hill is eligible to be reactivated which will mean someone has to be re-assigned. Lewis has no remaining options and is a very likely candidate to be claimed so he will almost definitely stay. Considering the uncertainty in the rotation I highly doubt they will be shortening the bullpen anytime soon. So in terms of bench players with options, that leaves Randy Ruiz and Mike McCoy. Considering McCoy was essentially the 25th man out of camp and Ruiz's usefulness as a slugging pinch hitter, it'll probably be the speedy utility man packing his bags for Las Vegas. But should it?

.258/.271/.384

Not a particularly good line, right? In fact, for John McDonald that was a career high. In 151 at-bats last year, the rangey shortstop posted an OPS of .655, which was a personal best and also about a hundred points below league average. Defensively Johnny Mac was his usual self, as his -0.1 Ultimate Zone Rating was really more or less a product of his struggles at third, which is not by any means a strong position for him (career UZR of -2.1 at the hot corner). He is a useful middle infielder.

On the other hand, Mike McCoy posted a line of .307/.405/.400 in Triple-A Colorado last year. He stole successfully on 40 of 46 attempts. Defensive metrics in the minors are not particularly advanced so UZR is not an option, but he did post range factors at 2B/SS/3B of 5.33/4.80/2.21 compared to the Prime Minister of Defence's 4.75/3.35/2.00. McCoy showed excellent patience at the minor league level and can potentially provide some top of the lineup production to go with a solid glove.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not using range factor to argue that Mike McCoy is any way a better fielder than John McDonald. What his solid numbers in that category conceal is that he did make 12 errors last year, compared to Johnny Mac's 3 (those over 475 defensive opportunities for McCoy vs. 198 for Mac). McDonald has proven over his career that he is a well above average defender and will continue to prove very useful as a late inning defensive replacement. He just isn't suited for how the Jays have been using him.

21 of Mac's 73 appearances last year came as a late inning pinch runner. Not exactly one to strike fear into the hearts of catchers, Johnny didn't steal a base last year. He only stole three the year prior. 9 more of his appearances came at third, where he's proven himself well below average defensively in his career. 14 of his 20 starts at shortstop came after the season ending injury to Marco Scutaro in September of last year which, given the history of Alex Gonzalez, may very well happen again. But does Johnny Mac really have the skill set to be a useful utility man? I just don't see it.

Ultimately, I'm sure that it'll play out just like I'm predicting with the Real McCoy heading to Vegas to help what looks to be a terrific team this year. I don't think anyone in the front office wants to move another fan favorite, and on top of that it's hard to know what, if any, market there would be for John McDonald on a 2 year contract paying him 1.5MM per. I'm not even sure they should move him, considering we we've seen 18 plate appearances from McCoy and he just seems to be settling in now with presumably a week before he joins Las Vegas. But in terms of the value he could potentially bring, there is really little comparison between he and Johnny Mac, especially given his league minimum wages. And in a season like this, isn't potential exactly what the Blue Jays should be looking for?

Know Your Jays #3: Shawn Bowman

The Jays' latest signing--picked up off waivers from the Mets and sent to Las Vegas yesterday--might at first glance seem to be just another token Canadian with a wide batting stance.

The evidence is there--he was an easy pickup, as nobody had claimed him after the Mets designated him for assignment, another day and they'd have been able to outright him to a minor league team or (more likely) release him.

He's never made even AAA before, and at age 25, is running out of time in which he'll likely improve his game.

But despite all that, something about this pickup just feels good. Like it's more than this decade's version of Howie Clark getting his first shot.

Bowman was born in New Westminster, BC, and was a 12th-round draft pick by the Mets in 2002. The third baseman struggled mightily in both low-A and rookie ball. Somehow, he cracked the roster of A-level Capital City (no word on if Dancing Homer was in attendance), and displayed some strong power in 2004, hitting 18 homers.

Back problems came into the picture in 2005, and Bowman managed only 38 games between 2006 and 2007 between spells on the injured list. He came back late in 2008, and started tearing up the high-A Florida State League--hitting .340 over 26 games and earning a promotion to AA, where he homered in his first game.

2009 was Bowman's first full year in AA, and he responded with decent numbers: .294 with a .346 on-base percentage, his highest ever as he had learned how to take a walk. The drawback was that his power seemed to be gone, he hit only nine homers in nearly 400 at bats.

Despite a 3-for-10 spring, the Mets gave up on Shawn Bowman, which is where are story loops back to the beginning as the Jays took a chance on him. He's not going to be a superstar, but for an emergency name in case of an injury to Toronto starter Edwin Encarnacion, Bowman is worth a look.

In Las Vegas, Bowman will likely be the starting third baseman--provided his bat is up to the task--displacing Christian Colonel, in his first year with the Jays organization.

This Week In The Jaysophere (4/4-4/10)

The first week of the season made for some great content from our favourite Jays blogs, here's a sample:

Opening day review (Drunk Jays Fans)
Thoughts on Friday's game (Drunk Jays Fans)
Potential call-ups from AAA (Mop Up Duty)
Evolution of the closer (Batter's Box)
Bud Selig doesn't know what's good for Toronto (Hum and Chuck)
Others are noticing Tom Tango days after we did (Jays Journal)
A very important question (Jays Balk)
OOTP Baseball Is Awesome (1 Blue Jays Way)
Nicknames for Hechavarria (1 Blue Jays Way)
A legitimate criticism of Cito (The Southpaw)

NUMB3RS: Small Sample Sizes

As shown in previous installments of this feature, sometimes statistics are a great way to learn about what separates the good baseball players from the bad, why certain pitchers should make the team over others, and so forth.

My personal favourite statistics, though, are those which are just plain silly.



There's Vernon Wells. He's doing pretty well this year, you know. Five hits in seven at bats, three of which went out of the park. Pretty impressive.

Okay, so even the densest stathead knows that this is an aberration--Vernon won't keep up his .714 average for even a week, much less the entire season. Nor will he hit anywhere near the 243 homers he's currently on pace for. But can we get anything out of this?

Only twice before have Jays players hit three homers over the first two games of the year. Let's look at them.

In 1988, George Bell hit three bombs on Opening Day. The baseball press had reason to think this was a harbinger of good things to come--Bell was the reigning AL MVP, having just hit 47 home runs in one of the best offensive seasons in Toronto history. Three jacks in the first game? Just picking up where he left off.

As it turned out, that might have been the peak of Bell's career. Despite playing almost every game, he only hit 21 more homers in all of 1988, and finished the year with a rather pedestrian .269 batting average and .304 OBP. Certainly not what April fans had in mind.

In 2000, Shannon Stewart--a leadoff hitter known more for above-average speed and defence than any sort of power--accomplished the same feat. Two homers on opening day, one more the next. He would turn out to have one of his better years: .319 with 21 homers and 69 RBI.

The good thing about Vernon Mach 2010 is that the expectations on him are very, very low--if he ends up with Bell's 1988 numbers, nobody will really be surprised. If he ends up with Stewart's 2000 numbers, we'll be a little surprised at the high average. Pretty much any solid contribution will be a welcome surprise.

-------------------

On the other end of the spectrum, three Jays are currently on pace to not get a single hit all season oh my god what bums: Jose Bautista, Lyle Overbay, Edwin Encarnacion.

Again, I decided it was worth delving into whether this is an aberration, and what it could mean for the seasons these three will have.

Since the World Series years, there have been eleven instances of Jays going hitless in the first two games (minimum 6 AB). Their year-end stats (first three are batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage):

David Eckstein (2008): .265/.343/.349, 2 HR, 27 RBI
Corey Koskie (2005): .249/.337/.398, 11 HR, 36 RBI
Carlos Delgado (2004): .269/.372/.535, 32 HR, 99 RBI
Chris Woodward (2003): .261/.316/.395, 7 HR, 45 RBI
Vernon Wells (2002): .275/.305/.457, 23 HR, 100 RBI
Homer Bush (2000): .215/.271/.253, 1 HR, 18 RBI
Carlos Delgado (2000): .344/.470/.664, 41 HR, 137 RBI
Shawn Green (1998): .278/.334/.510, 35 HR, 100 RBI
Darrin Fletcher (1998): .283/.328/.410, 9 HR, 52 RBI
Carlos Garcia (1997): .220/.253/.309, 3 HR, 23 RBI
Alex Gonzalez (1994): .151/.224/.245, 0 HR, 1 RBI

Can we learn anything from this? Probably not. There's a range from one of the best offensive seasons the Jays have had in this era--Delgado's 2000--to two of the worst regular starters they've ever trotted out in Bush and Garcia. Gonzalez shouldn't really count, as he only appeared in 15 games and spent the bulk of the year in the minors.

Overall, though, we do see a trend toward slightly below-average numbers. It makes sense when you think about it--if a player hits amazingly badly over two games, he's probably a poor hitter who won't do that great over the course of the season as a whole.

If true, this is a problem. These three (perhaps excepting Overbay) were guys Cito was counting on to fill positions for a year or two, until young guys were ready. Below-average is not what was expected.

Then again, do we really know anything? After all, it's just two games!

10 Reasons To Be Excited About The '10 Jays

The Blue Jays' 2010 season, which is only hours away from taking flight, is poised to be a tough one. The face of the franchise is gone as the After Doc era begins, and Vernon Wells is earning three times as much as the Jays' entire rotation. But despite those bumps in the road, there are reasons for optimism in '10. Here are ten of the best:


1) Aaron Hill

We all missed it. While our attention was focused (deservedly) on Roy Halladay and his amazing pitching prowess, Aaron Hill quietly became one of the best hitters in baseball. He also became quite the heartthrob--even though he occasionally gets caught in a yawn (see photo), most Jays jerseys I've noticed worn by girls around my university are adorned with Aaron's name on the back. Speculation has Aaron settling back a bit from last year's levels of offense, at least in power, but even so, it looks like we finally have our best second baseman since Robbie skipped town 15 years ago.

2) The Youngsters Emerge

When you run your finger up and down the Jays' opening day lineup, it's not very impressive. In fact, large parts of the Jays' roster could be considered interchangeable with Las Vegas. By the end of the year, expect that to be the case--Jesse Carlson, Brett Cecil, Zach Stewart, David Purcey, Josh Roenicke, J.P. Arencibia, and Brett Wallace are just some of the names that will be given a try in Toronto eventually, many of whom show tremendous potential. By September, we'll have a good grasp of who will lead this team back to respectability in 2011 any beyond.

3) Alex Anthopolous

Meet the new GM, not quite the same as the old GM. Anthopolous has shown a willingness to make trades, and an ability to make good trades. Unlike J.P. Ricciardi, who was scared away from trades because he knew he'd be skewered if they didn't pan out, Anthopolous gives you the sense he enjoys making deals as much as any armchair GM. On top of that, he's engaging, honest, and has a fresh approach to public relations--right now, he seems like a dream GM. 'Course, we said the same thing about Ricciardi at first...

4) The Anti-Bandwagon

We all know that Leaf fans are insufferable. Any victory proves that the team is good enough to make the playoffs, any trade was a ridiculous steal on the part of Brian Burke. Jays fans have the opposite tendency--they can't criticize fast enough. Travis Snider hitting ninth?!? Randy Ruiz on the bench?!? Brian Tallet as the #2 starter?!? (Okay, that last one might be valid.) Listening to Jays Talk will be fun this year, because we all enjoy the despair of Jays fans more than the delusions of Leaf fans.

5) Buck Martinez

Now that the man who fired him has departed from the scene, Toronto's patron saint of colour commentary has made his return. Only now he's doing play-by-play, working with his old teammate Rance Mulliniks and his old understudy Pat Tabler. Martinez has a great voice and a tremendous depth of baseball knowledge, I suspect he'll be the best TV play-by-play guy the Jays have had since Dan Shulman headed stateside.

Also, the Jays have finally committed to producing all 162 games of the season. Some might still wind up on the Rogers preview channel, but no longer will we have to suffer through inexplicable out-of-town broadcasts.

6) Unlikely Heroes

Assuming we take Cito and Anthopolous at their word (and yes, that's always dangerous), there aren't any safe jobs on this year's squad. In theory, this means ample opportunity for everybody to prove that they can play--maybe Randy Ruiz will continue to hit .350, maybe Kyle Drabek will be ready for the bigs earlier than anybody thinks, maybe Dana Eveland will turn into an ace. Management has laid the groundwork for a new decade's Chris Michalak or Tony Batista to come in and surpass everybody's expectations, and probability law suggests that this will happen.

7) Travis Snider

It's still hard for me to believe that a bona fide MLB player is barely older than I am, but Snider fits the bill. Snider's rookie season included some ups and downs, but ultimately it was decided he was good enough to start 2010 as the Jays' left fielder. This kid has a ton of potential and a great work ethic--if this is the year he starts to put it all together, it'll be a lot of fun.

8) We Can Beat The Yankees

Not every time we play them, sure, but beating the Yankees won't be as big of an accomplishment this year. PECOTA has them projected to miss the playoffs, and most predictions I've seen have them finishing behind Boston and Tampa. It might be an easier victory than it has been in a long time, but that doesn't make it any less sweet. Especially if A.J. Burnett is back on the mound.

9) No More Tomo Ohkas

Don't get me wrong, the idea to bring in Ohka (and John Thomson, and Victor Zambrano, and Brad Wilkerson, and...) was a good one--cheap pickups who at some point were effective major leaguers, and might be able to recapture that glory. But the execution, the running these people out game after game even though they clearly didn't have it and our career minor leaguers in AAA would have done a better job, that was a problem. This year, we're going with the career minor leaguers--and if they can't hack it, and get sent back down to Vegas, their egos will be just fine.

10) Doc's Return

Any true Jays fan already has June 25-27 marked, circled, and underlined on every calendar they own. The Philadelphia Phillies roll into town, with the odds slightly in favour of a Roy Halladay start. This isn't going to be Burnett coming back to the Rogers Centre to get humiliated, this is going to be Mats Sundin's return to the ACC. We love the guy, we'll give him an ovation. We'd love to see Toronto kick his ass, of course, but we wouldn't rub it in if that happens. He's a great player, after all, so maybe he'll throw a shutout or score the winner in a shootout--and if he does, we'll cheer for him just as much as we did when he wore our colours.

These aren't silver linings, little puffs of interest in a season full of doom and gloom. These are bona fide reasons to cheer for the '10 Jays.

This Week In The Jaysophere (3/28-4/3)

Under 48 hours to go until the start of the season - and we'll do our best to have some more actual content by that point. But for now, it's time once again to extend our arms in friendship and solidarity with those who have done this longer and better than us. Here's some of the best Jays-related Web material of the past seven days!

Generic corporate motivational techniques make us happy (The Tao of Stieb)
Good rotation analysis made moot by an injury (Drunk Jays Fans)
2010 Roundtable Jays Preview (Batter's Box)
Defending Richard Griffin (Batter's Box)
Speaking for most of us (Infield Fly)
An unbelievably lengthy season preview (Jays Journal)
Something in which the Jays lead the league (Jays Balk)
Remembering Roy Halladay (I bet I can find one of these every week) (1 Blue Jays Way)
Some thoughts on some pitchers (The Southpaw)