How You Gonna Keep 'Em Down On The Farm?

Often times, we don't pay attention to the Jays' minor league system until somebody gets called up, at which point we either second-guess the Jays for calling up somebody who wasn't putting up great numbers, or ask why they weren't brought up sooner.

So we thought we'd change that. Who in Las Vegas could potentially make a difference to the big club? Who clearly needs more time in the minors? Who in New Hampshire could benefit from a move upwards and westwards?

Looking over the Las Vegas numbers, the biggest surprise is that the team leader in batting average and OBP is Chris Aguila. I've never heard of Chris Aguila, I'd have guessed he was a Mexican pro wrestler, but there he is--hitting .329 as a versatile outfielder.

(We're on to your secret identity, Chris.)

Aguila has had cups of coffee with the Marlins and the Mets in the past, and spent 2009 in Japan. He's always been what baseball nerds like to call an 'AAAA' player--one of the better players in AAA, but never able to hack it in the majors. At 30 years of age, and not on the 40-man roster, I doubt we'll be seeing Aguila in Toronto unless there's a major injury crisis.

Brett Wallace, on the other hand, is somebody who everybody was expecting in Toronto by the end of the year, and it looks as though he's meeting those expectations. While it's not a bad idea to hold him in Vegas as long as possible for service time considerations, I'd suggest giving him some regular playing time in the last quarter of the season, leading to a Rookie of the Year campaign in 2011.

Wallace is the 51s' leader in slugging percentage by quite a margin, giving him a .995 OPS--also solidly in first place. He's hitting .311 with ten homers. 35 strikeouts, though what you'd have to expect from somebody with his makeup, is a little high, but 14 walks offset that total somewhat.

Moving to the other side of the spectrum, J.P. Arencibia is struggling to a .238/.306/.366 line--which actually makes him the better of the 51s' two catchers--and sleeper favourite Brian Dopirak has a horrid .258 OBP.

On the mound, most of those who deserve shots at the bigs--Brett Cecil, Josh Roenicke, and Rommie Lewis--have already been called up. Brad Mills also stands out: a 2.53 ERA, with left-handed hitters only batting .143 against him, and he'll hopefully get a look if another starter is needed.

Surprisingly, though, most of the names that you'd expect to be on the cusp of that Vegas-to-Toronto flight find themselves struggling in AAA--Jeremy Accardo has been average at best, compiling a 3.60 ERA, David Purcey and Jesse Carlson have been worse in their relief roles, and Merkin Valdez has a 12.46 ERA through five abbreviated appearances.

In New Hampshire, the picture is a bit more rosy. Brian Jeroloman probably deserves a shot at replacing either of the ineffective catchers in Vegas; he's hitting .325 and getting on base neither every second trip to the plate, as is infielder Brad Emaus. Zach Drabek is pitching well, but not well enough to crack Vegas, while Zach Stewart's 6.84 ERA is ugly even for that level. The Fisher Cats' best pitchers are a pair of surprises: Trystan Magnuson, a Vancouver-born righty with a 1.40 ERA through twelve release appearances and the name of a misguided viking, and Randy Boone, who has quietly worked his way through the Jays' system since being taken in the seventh round of the 2007 draft.

Okay, so maybe there's no immediate saviour on the Jays' horizon--Brett Wallace is close, but he'd be more valuable to us in 2016 than in 2010. But there is a solid crop of players who, with the right amount of development, could play major roles for Toronto in seasons to come.

NUMB3RS: Simmer Down on Overbay and Wallace

Lyle Overbay (2009, MLB) - .265/.372/.466, 16 HR, 64 RBIs
Brett Wallace (2009, AA/AAA) .293/.367/.455, 20 HR, 63 RBIs

As one of the most unflinching Lyle Overbay supporters out there, I can't find it in me to say the haters are wrong so far in 2010. I mean, I suppose I could point to the fact that his line drive percentage (.122) and batting average on balls in play (.171) are close enough to suggest he may be getting unlucky (traditionally BABIP tends to be about .120 higher than LD%, in this case just .049). I could also point to his usage against left handed pitching this year, against whom he has yet to reach base in 16 plate appearances while grounding out 7 times and racking up 4 strike outs. But no matter how far I may reach, the truth is that Lyle Overbay has been pretty damn bad at the plate in 2010.

Meanwhile one of the players who came to Toronto as an indirect result of the Doc Deal, Brett Wallace, is tearing it up in Las Vegas. Through the first 15 games of the PCL season, Wallace has hit 6 home runs, compiling a batting line of .269/.367/.635. If the move to a new ball club or position is bothering him, you couldn't tell from his statistics.

Unsurprisingly, the calls for Overbay to be replaced with Wallace have started to pop up. Far be it from me to even acknowledge an article that suggests Alex Gonzalez and his career .294 on base percentage (only slightly better at .319 in 2010 thus far) should be hitting lead-off, but it is an acknowledgment of a growing feeling in Toronto. And hey, there is no doubt whatsoever that this is the long-term plan, maybe even not so long-term. But for a number of reasons, an April switcheroo is both reckless and potentially harmful.

For one, it would involve essentially abandoning any attempt to return any sort of value for Lyle Overbay. Lyle, in his 5th and presumably final season with the club, has always had value as a well disciplined, defensively sound first baseman who could be counted on to reach base at a pretty much clockwork on-base-percentage of .360-.370. He entered the season with a .275/.356/.449 line over his time with the club. His varied skills, as both a righty masher (.282/.379/.463 against them in his career) and an above average defensive corner man could make him useful trade-bait come the July trade deadline, when most of the 7 million due him has been doled out.

So let's say they play the hot hand (albeit one that's been hot over 15 games, hardly a large sample size) and bring up Wallace to start at first. The glut of players who can literally only play first necessitates that either Ruiz or Overbay come off the 25 man roster. I'm not sure what's the worst outcome here: a 7 million dollar bench player in the big leagues or a 7 million dollar starter in Las Vegas. Of course you could also release him and eat the remaining 6.3 million or so due to him this year. But with these options, you negate any return on a 33 year old who has been a been a well above average major leaguer for the majority of his career and as recently as last year, all because of a slow start over 16 games (the most recent 3 of which he put up a line of .333/.500/.556).

As BJ Ryan/Frank Thomasian as the Overbay scenario sounds, the risk is even greater for Brett Wallace. Yes Wallace's numbers look great. They also look very different from the player he's been projected as. Originally thought of as an excellent contact hitter with plus discipline and home run power in the low to mid 20s, he's put up a lower than career normal batting average of .269, getting on base at about the same clip as last year but with much higher power numbers. Kevin Youkilis doesn't become Adam Dunn overnight. As much as I like Brett Wallace and expect him to be an excellent hitter for years to come, I'm also not chomping at the bit to start the clock on his major league service time based on a 15 game sample size that may be a total outlier.

And what of the service time question? Were they to hold off until May 1st to make the move, Wallace would accumulate 156 days of service time were he to remain with the club through the season, 16 days short of the 172 that constitute an entire year of MLB service. That being said, while he would not have 3 years of service time at the end of the 2012 season he would have 2.156, which would make him a likely candidate for Super 2 arbitration eligibility. Super 2 takes all the players with 2 years of service time and at least 86 days the year prior, the top 17 percent of which in terms of playing time become eligible for arbitration a year early. Were Wallace to come up to replace Overbay as the starting first baseman and stick, he'd be a virtual lock as a Super 2. If Wallace hits like we all hope he's going to hit, that's a swing in the millions of dollars. All for a season where this team has been forecast to finish no higher than 4th. In a division where we need to be almost perfect financially to compete with the two-headed monster of the Red Sox and Yankees.

Don't get me wrong, we're going to see Brett Wallace this year. If he weren't up by August 1st I'd be shocked. I'm as excited as anyone to see the future that involves guys like Kyle Drabek, Travis D'Arnaud, Brett Wallace and Adeiny Hechavarria get here. But bringing up Wallace early won't get it here early, and not at least giving Overbay the chance to return to the asset he was merely a month ago is the kind of short sighted thinking that this team's GM is trying to avoid.