Saturday, March 20, 2010

NUMB3RS

Baseball is dull only to dull minds.
-Red Barber-

The above quotation is not fair, and probably not entirely true. Yet to be a fan of the sport is to encounter a considerable amount of blanket statements equally ignorant from the other side. Baseball is boring. It’s too slow. There’s not enough scoring. Elijah Dukes got me pregnant then threw a Gatorade bottle at me. Okay, that last one might be true.

But to an average sports fan with delusions of grandeur and an armchair quarterback complex, baseball is a self-congratulatory buffet. You can make almost any argument as long as you have enough patience to find the statistics that help you and in some cases wilfully ignore the others. If you’re a traditionalist who thinks that Joe Carter is the greatest player to put on a Jays uniform, you can point to his 5 All-Star Game appearances, 2 Silver Slugger awards, 7 consecutive years with 20-plus home runs or you can get sentimental and point out that he hit the single most important home run in Blue Jays history. If you’re a seamhead, you’re probably more likely to appreciate Roberto Alomar’s sublime defensive play, his ability to steal successfully 81% of the time or his .382 on base percentage in 5 seasons with the team. And if you’re one of those rational in between types, you’ll point out that you can’t replace a guy who carried his team to a .596 winning percentage in games he started over 12 years and that you don’t see any blogs named “Blue Jays After Alomar”.

I guess what I’m saying is that baseball is an easy sport to become obsessed with. If you can gain a better understanding of the various statistical measurements, you can much more easily follow the game. Wonder why the manager has gone to two relievers in two at bats? Look at the pitcher’s situational splits and realise that no, Shawn Camp should most definitely not stay in to face a lefty slugger. Why does a team’s best power hitter bat in the middle of the line-up? Because the guys hitting immediately in front of him are particularly good at getting on base, giving the sluggers a better chance to score multiple runners with a single swing of the bat. Why did Kevin Millar spend so many games in the clean-up role last year? Well, that’s because Cito Gaston doesn’t give a shit about your “stats”; you can kiss his ass. And you can print it too.

It’s a game quantified by stats, but its fun to watch too. I’ve always been a fan of the pitcher’s duel; nothing like a good low scoring game in the late innings where you get two out situations with a go-ahead runner in scoring position. Pick your pitches carefully, but don’t miss over the plate because if you do all he needs to do is push it (or fist it, if you’re Skip Caray) in to left to cash the runner. And hey, don’t miss off the plate because their slugger is up next and he can turn a tie game into a 3-run game deficit fast. But no pressure, it’s just some boring game.

As a Jays fan, I live for the rare moments. Moments like when Marco Scutaro took second on a walk in Philadelphia. Or when Aaron Hill booted a Nick Markakis grounder in the 10th leading to an unearned run against the 0’s, only to step up to the plate that inning and tattoo the first pitch he saw into the crowd in left to even the score, and later cash the winning run in the 11th with a single. Or the highlight of the past few seasons, when AJ Burnett made his walk of shame last May as Doc and the Jays KO’d him to the tune of 5 runs over 7 and a two thirds innings. I gleefully remind Red Sox fans that Jacoby Ellsbury was statistically the worst defensive centre fielder in baseball last year, while deluding myself into thinking the fans are to blame for turning Vernon Wells from a good hitter on the road (.300/.335/.444) into a complete lost cause in front of the home crowd (.214/.285/.348). I’m coming to grips with my favourite team being ace-less in the AD era, but I believe wholly in the Anthopoulos plan. I promise you stats geekery and sentimentality mixed with unbridled optimism and a twinge of realism. Because even without Harry Leroy Halladay, there is still hope in the Jayosphere.

At least until August. Then we’ll all want to kill ourselves.

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