Thursday, July 15, 2010

Month 3 A.D. in Review


40-39, 4th in AL East (9-17 in June)

Notable Performers:
Brandon Morrow - 5 GS, 1-2, 1.91 ERA, 33 IP, 34 SO, 10 BB
Ricky Romero - 5 GS, 1-2, 2.12 ERA, 34 IP, 24 SO, 12 BB
Shawn Camp - 12 G, 1-0, 2.03 ERA, 13.1 IP, 8 SO, 1 BB
Scott Downs - 12 G, 1-1, 3.12 ERA, 8.2 IP, 8 SO, 1 BB

Batters... ha. Like we had any this month.

The wild power party of May was fun, but it inevitably led to the soul piercing hangover of June. After smashing a club record 54 home runs in May, the bats quieted considerably managing less than half that total with 26 while batting .221 in June. For most other teams that home run total would be fine, but for a team as home run driven as the Blue Jays it's crippling. Managing only 80 runs in 26 games, the team was held to 3 runs or less 17 times (and completely shut out on 3 occasions). The team's June line of .221/.293/.367 isn't just bad, it's positively John-McDonaldian. This was a bad month, but given that it was the toughest month on the schedule (not to mention the pitching staff's respectable 4.26 ERA in June) it could have been a lot worse.

High Points:

June 4th - Jays 6, Yankees 1
This one had every piece of the recipe for a memorable game. Lots of home runs. Great pitching. Victory over a jilted ex-Jay. And most important of all, a comfortable victory over the hated Yankees. AJ Burnett took to the mound for his first start of June with a seasonal ERA of 3.28 and a record of 6-2. He'd give up 6 runs in 6 innings including 3 home runs and earn the loss. By the end of the month he'd be 6-7 with a 5.25 ERA, having given up 9 home runs in the month alone. A Jays fan can't help but fantasize that this was the start that triggered his downward trajectory. Anyways Burnett was in every way the lesser of the two starters on this night, as Brett Cecil would give up just a single run over 8 innings of work. 2 home runs by Jose Bautista (and a double that JUST missed giving J-Bau a third round tripper) and another by Edwin Encarnacion would power the Jays offense, while Jason Frasor would come on to give the team a low leverage inning to close it out.

June 5th - Jays 3, Yankees 2
Okay, so this two day period was definitely the high point of the month. This was a 14 inning pitchers duel that saw two front of the rotation starters trade excellent performances before the bullpens bunkered down for 5 innings of extra baseball. The Yankees led 2-1 going into the bottom of the 7th until an Alex Gonzalez solo shot knotted it up at 2. Ricky Romero lasted 8 strong innings before turning the ball over to Scott Downs, Kevin Gregg, Shawn Camp and Casey Janssen. Camp and Janssen in particular provided outstanding relief out of the bullpen, each going two scoreless innings. Finally in the bottom of the 14th, Edwin Encarnacion walked and was bunted over to second on a Fred Lewis sacrifice. Aaron Hill then stepped up to the plate and secured sweet victory at the 4:09 mark. Yanks went down 2-0 in the series and the Jays were within a game and a half of their hated rivals. Oh, salad days. How I miss ye.

June 26th - Jays 5, Phillies 1
I may in fact be biased by this victory as I was at Citizen's Bank Park to witness it. Any Jays fan who had been to the game the previous night to witness Roy Halladay carve his former team up while Jesse Litsch failed to get anyone out needed this. And sure enough, the Jays pulled through. Shawn Marcum cut through the Phillies like a knife through that awful fucking cream cheese, Cole Hamels was as weak and ineffective as the Bud Light sold in the stands. Gonzalez, Buck and Hill all went deep, and Scott Downs provided two strong innings of relief before Shawn Camp closed it out in the 9th.

Low Points:

June 1st - Rays 7, Blue Jays 6
Remember the tense anxiousness with which we all watched that Rays series that started the month? I remember the Jays going up 4-0 after 5, and all I wanted to see was Tallet get through one more inning and then the bullpen should be able through 9 outs on a 4 run lead. He got two outs, then Casey Janssen gave him a little help for the third. In the bottom of the 6th the bats picked up another run and I was starting to feel a little more relaxed. Then Janssen and Frasor combined to give up 3 runs in the 7th. Fine, I assured myself, just get to the 9th with a 2 run lead and they'll be fine. They did. They weren't. So many things could have gone right to give the Jays what would have been a momentum setting victory. John Buck could have gotten off a better throw with one out to throw out Carl Crawford who got an absolutely horrid jump from first. Kevin Gregg could have thrown a strike to second to pick off a dead to rights Carl Crawford, again with one out (instead E1, Crawford to third). Gregg could have thrown a strike at all. Unfortunately none of these things happened, and 4 runs crossed the plate on Gregg's 5 walks. John Buck tried to redeem himself with a solo shot in the bottom half, but it was all they could muster. It was one of 3 losses the Jays suffered in the home stand where they had late-game leads.

June 8th - Rays 9, Blue Jays 0
I believe my tweet at the time was "Tallet can't get deep into the game, handing the ball to a bullpen that can't stop the Rays? Who could've predicted this? Oh wait, everyone." Perhaps a bit harsh; after the start he gave his team 7 days prior I can understand feeling obligated to giving the guy one more start. I'm also definitely not convinced Jesse Litsch would have been any better given his performance so far this year. Nonetheless, the big run total on the Rays side was not entirely surprising. Given that the bats had earned 8 runs off of Jeff Niemann in 13 innings of work in 2010, a complete game 2 hit shutout at his hands was. But who would have thought it wouldn't even be the most disappointing 9-0 loss of the month?

June 25th - Phillies 9, Blue Jays 0
It was the game we'd all been waiting for since last December. Roy Halladay's first start against the Blue Jays. It was supposed to be in Toronto, but Jays front office selfishly thought Jays faithful wouldn't want to walk through the rows of burning cop cars and window smashing anarchists to get to the game. Of course we would. We'd all love to know just what it's like to see a game in the Bronx. Nonetheless, the game was moved from the Big Smoke to the Land of the Cheesesteak. And what an awful game it proved to be. Roy Halladay was about as good as we'd remembered, getting through 7 innings and striking out 4 against a single walk. We learned what it must have felt like all those years for other teams watching their middle of the order come up with bloop fly balls and choppers all night long against this guy. Jesse Litsch and David Purcey were not so good. It's not that we should have expected a drastically different result, it's that we hoped for so much more.

What to look for in July:

Well I am actually something of a psychic capable of looking more than 2 weeks into the future, all the way to July 15th. I predict that the Jays will hit a ton of home runs in the first few weeks, but see their starters struggle and end up a game under .500 by the break. We will see Lyle Overbay start to embrace his inner awesome to the point that he's infrequently being mentioned as a potential trade target for contenders. We might see as many as 3 (yes 3!) all stars. Oh, and don't get attached to any middle infielders with chinstraps.

Okay, so this is about as late as one can possibly do a month and review without venturing into the question of whether to just wait 2 weeks and do a double. If the Drunk Jays Fans can use the World Cup as an excuse, so can I. In the realm of an actual projection of what to expect over the last 16 days of the month, I'd wager some measure of excitement. The Jays acquired a potentially explosive SS in Yunel Escobar, and it's hard to tell whether he has mechanical issues that will make the rest of this season a moot point or whether a change of scenery can seriously impact his play immediately. The rest of the month is against some pretty miserable competition, so you would hope to see the team above .500 by the trade deadline.

In terms of off field stuff, the international free agency window has opened and the Jays have already made a pair of splashes with pitcher Adonis Cardona and third baseman Gabriel Cenas. Keith Law has said a couple of times he expects the team to be the big spenders in international free agency this year and Marco Paddy has said that his team has the freedom to go after anyone they want, so I wouldn't be surprised if more signings are forthcoming. Remember that signing international free agents is the best and most limitless way to load of your system. You aren't limited to picking one in 30 like the draft, and there is never anything lost except money. If Alex Anthoupolous wants to load the cupboards quickly, international free agency is the way to expedite the process.

The other card the young GM holds right now lies in the team's many moveable parts. Players like Scott Downs, Jason Frasor, Lyle Overbay, Kevin Gregg and John Buck are all headed for free agency, although Downs, Frasor, Gregg and Buck all figure at the moment to be worth draft compensation if they do leave. I'm not sure what value there is on a disciplined, defensive first baseman without huge power (and as was pointed out on ESPN's Baseball Today last week, what contender doesn't have a first baseman?), but the other players mentioned have legitimate value. Scott Downs could feature as the most valuable piece, a very talented left handed reliever with a track record that goes back several years. It remains to be seen whether AA gets an offer he likes as much as the Escobar deal, but the potential to see this farm system continue to grow and strengthen is exciting to say the last. And to see this instead of pointless additions and a Stand Pat mentality towards impending free agents is way more encouraging.